The current El Niño weather pattern, which is expected to continue strengthening and could become one of the most severe on record, is arriving amid significant pressure on the global food system. Conflict in the Middle East has disrupted the global fertilizer supply, increased energy costs and thrown shipping routes into disarray.
Farmers around the world are feeling the impact, but on the whole, agricultural systems have so far proven resilient. Producers have adapted by varying their crop mix and finding alternative sources for fertilizers and other inputs, while policymakers have stepped in to offer support. Still, this “super El Niño” will test how well those mechanisms can continue to absorb pressure as weather conditions evolve during relatively narrow agricultural production windows.
El Niño conditions are characterized by warmer-than-average ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific, which alter weather patterns around the world.The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration currently forecasts a greater than 90 percent probability of a very strong El Niño system during the Northern Hemisphere’s fall and winter. The impacts on food security will vary substantially by country and crop, particularly given the severe inequality around the world when it comes to access to irrigation, fertilizer, credit, seeds and reliable logistics.Agricultural exposure will be particularly important across tropical regions and parts of the Southern Hemisphere, where growing seasons will coincide with El Niño-related shifts in rainfall.
