Tinubu gives security chiefs 90 days to produce national threat assessment, five-year defence plan

President Bola Tinubu has given Nigeria’s top defence, intelligence, and security chiefs 90 days to produce a comprehensive national threat assessment and a five-year strategic defence operations plan aimed at transforming the country’s response to evolving security threats.

The directive was disclosed on Wednesday by the Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF), who inaugurated the Presidential Committee on National Threat Assessment and Five-Year Strategic Defence Operations Plan on behalf of the President.

The committee, comprising the National Security Adviser, ministers of defence, service chiefs and heads of major security and intelligence agencies, is expected to move Nigeria’s security architecture from reacting to individual threats to anticipating them, prioritising risks and aligning resources with clearly defined national security objectives.

Charging members to approach the assignment with professionalism, objectivity, urgency and patriotism, the SGF said the documents must be submitted within 90 days for President Tinubu’s consideration and approval.

He said the initiative was necessitated by the increasingly complex and interconnected nature of contemporary security threats, which could exploit gaps between institutions, jurisdictions and operational theatres.

While acknowledging recent successes recorded by the Armed Forces and other security agencies, the SGF said the country could no longer afford an approach focused largely on responding to threats after they emerged.

According to him, Nigeria needs a system capable of anticipating threats, setting priorities, allocating scarce resources rationally and sustaining operational momentum while ensuring that national security objectives translate into measurable outcomes.

He said operational responses by defence, intelligence and security chiefs must be anchored on a shared national understanding of the security environment and a coherent short-, medium- and long-term strategy.

The SGF expressed concern that operational requirements were sometimes considered independently without sufficient reference to an agreed national threat assessment, clearly prioritised objectives or a unified capability plan.

He said the situation could complicate coordination and limit the efficient deployment of scarce resources.

The committee, he explained, is expected to establish a clear link between threats, operational objectives, military capabilities, resources and measurable outcomes.

“In simple terms, we must establish a clear path from threat to objective, from objective to capability, from capability to resource, and from resource to measurable outcome,” he said.

Under the new framework, the National Threat Assessment will provide an objective assessment of Nigeria’s security environment, identifying existing and emerging threats, their strategic implications, how they could evolve and the appropriate government response.

The assessment is also expected to help security agencies distinguish between immediate threats requiring urgent action and emerging risks requiring early investment in intelligence, technology, infrastructure, training and other capabilities.

The Five-Year Strategic Defence Operations Plan will translate the threat assessment into prioritised operational requirements, including the forces, equipment, intelligence, infrastructure, logistics, technology and personnel required across different theatres.

The plan will also identify capability gaps and establish procurement priorities based on assessed threats and operational requirements rather than institutional preferences.

The SGF said the five-year framework would provide the medium-term horizon needed for force development, capability acquisition, infrastructure, training, maintenance, research and development, as well as the strengthening of Nigeria’s defence industrial base.

However, he said the plan would operate on a rolling basis and be reviewed annually to reflect emerging threats, changing operational realities, technological developments and lessons from ongoing operations.

The committee is also mandated to establish implementation timelines, assign responsibilities, develop monitoring mechanisms and recommend measures for assessing outcomes.

The SGF said Nigerian troops and security personnel, who continue to demonstrate courage and commitment in defending the country, deserved a strategic framework that clearly defines their objectives and provides the capabilities and resources required to accomplish their mission.

The committee will be coordinated and supported by the Office of the President’s Special Adviser on Homeland Security, Major General Adeyinka Famadewa (retd).

Its membership includes the National Security Adviser, Malam Nuhu Ribadu; Minister of Defence, General Christopher Musa (retd); Minister of State for Defence, Bello Muhammad Matawalle; Chief of Defence Staff, General Olufemi Oluyede; Chief of Army Staff, Lt. General Waidi Shaibu; Chief of Air Staff, Air Marshal Sunday Kelvin Aneke; and Chief of Naval Staff, Vice Admiral Idi Abbas.

Others are the Inspector-General of Police, Olatunji Rilwan Disu; Director-General of the Department of State Services, Tosin Ajayi; and Director-General of the National Intelligence Agency, Ambassador Muhammed Muhammed.

Famadewa, in his closing remarks, said the assignment must be treated as a shared national responsibility, assuring that his role would be to facilitate collaboration and harness the collective expertise of members rather than command the committee.

He disclosed that subcommittees would be established to handle specialised areas and facilitate completion of the assignment within the 90-day deadline.