One thing that’s been consistent since U.S President Donald Trump took office? The U.S dollar just keeps sliding. In 2025, the DXY fell by 9.4% – Marking its worst streak since 2017. And yet, there are no signs of stopping yet.
Fast forward to early 2026, and the DXY is already down 1.4%, back to 2022 levels. And if you remember, that was the year the crypto market got absolutely crashed, losing 65% of its market cap.
In this context, the 24% drop in crypto market cap so far this year isn’t a fluke. Investors are clearly keeping an eye on the dollar, and the way things are unfolding, it’s shaping up to be a key metric for crypto’s H2 moves.
Source: TradingView (DXY/USD)
On the macro side, optimism around rate cuts is picking up, and there are solid reasons for it. The market is expecting the new Fed Chair to stick to his promise of more cuts, and now even the data is backing that call.
The Truflation inflation index has been cooling lately, nudging investors towards a more dovish stance. The result? The probability of a March FOMC rate cut just jumped from 9.4% last week to 21.2% at press time.
In short, the market is pricing in 2026’s first rate cut. But, here’s the kicker: The falling dollar could shake things up even more. Analysts are eyeballing another 10% drop in the DXY if the Fed actually pulls the trigger on cuts.
Naturally, the question – Is crypto about to hit another 2022-style wipeout?
March rate cut meets debt pressure – Risks for crypto rally
There’s a key reason why crypto diverged in the 2025 cycle.
Normally, a falling DXY is a green light for risk assets. Investors tend to ditch safe-havens like bonds when interest rates drop. And yet, in 2025, crypto ended the year down 7.8% – Roughly tracking the DXY’s 9.4% slide.
So, what went wrong? Interest payments on U.S debt to overseas holders hit a record $292 billion in Q3 2025. Investors saw the setup as riskier as high debt raised the risk of a liquidity squeeze, capping upside for crypto.
Source: Burea of Economic Analysis
Now, a rate cut could push the dollar even lower, which normally makes bonds less attractive and crypto more appealing. However, with China offloading Treasuries and debt interest piling up, yields are under pressure too.
Put simply: Rate cuts mean more capital, and a 10% drop in the DXY would normally be a green light for crypto. But with the U.S.-China “dollar war” threatening higher interest, another liquidity squeeze could hit hard.
That’s why crypto’s 23% dip tracking the DXY’s 1.4% slide isn’t random. Instead, it’s a sign of stress in the system. In this context, rate cuts might actually be more bearish than bullish for crypto’s rally heading into H2.
Final Thoughts
- Falling DXY usually boosts crypto, but record U.S debt payments and China’s Treasury sell-offs are creating liquidity stress.
- Even with a March rate cut and a potential 10% DXY drop, systemic stress means crypto’s H2 rally could face headwinds.
