Ethereum (ETH) is trading at the $2,971 level with a 6.73% drop in the last 24 hours and is maintaining its overall downtrend structure. The price remaining below short-term EMAs, supported by a bearish Supertrend signal and negative MACD, shows weak momentum; critical supports at $2,951 and $2,810 will be tested, while BTC weakness poses additional risk for altcoins.
Executive Summary
ETH is moving within a clear downtrend as of January 21, 2026; the price is positioned below EMA20 ($3,145) at the $2,971 level, RSI at 40.06 in the neutral-bearish zone, and the MACD histogram is expanding negatively. Multi-timeframe analysis identifies 14 strong levels (1D: 3S/2R, 3D: 2S/2R, 1W: 3S/2R), with main supports at $2,951 (65/100) and $2,810 (65/100) standing out. Volume is high at $26 billion but confirming the downside. BTC downtrend (3.50% drop, $89,272) is pressuring ETH; short-term bearish bias dominates, with potential toward $2,623. Investors should follow the ETH Spot Analysis and ETH Futures Analysis pages. Strategic outlook: If selling pressure continues, it could head toward the $2,000 bearish target, but a break above $3,008 resistance could signal recovery.
Market Structure and Trend Status
Current Trend Analysis
ETH’s overall trend direction is confirmed as downtrend; a sharp pullback occurred from $3,200 to the $2,920 range in the last 24 hours. The Supertrend indicator is giving a bearish signal and $3,301 is functioning as resistance. The price remaining below EMA20 ($3,145.87) reinforces short-term bearish momentum. In a broader context, movement continues within the downtrend channel on the weekly chart; there is nearly 15% loss from recent highs. This structure shows buyers are weak and sellers are dominant. Multi-timeframe alignment is strong: bearish breakdowns are observed on daily and 3-day charts, while remaining below EMA50 continues on the weekly.
Structural Levels
Main structural levels are determined based on pivot points and Fibonacci retracements. On the daily chart, the Fibonacci 50% level from the $3,200 swing high to $2,623 swing low plays a critical role around $2,911. On the weekly structure, the lower band of the decline channel starting from $3,500 provides support in the $2,800s. These levels indicate that the market structure is maintaining the downtrend without disruption; there is no higher low formation.
Technical Indicators Report
Momentum Indicators
RSI(14) at 40.06, approaching oversold (below 30) but not yet giving a weakening signal; no divergence in the neutral-bearish zone. MACD line is below the signal line and the histogram is expanding negatively, confirming momentum loss. Stochastic %K has crossed below %D, giving a short-term sell signal. This confluence shows limited buyer entry.
Trend Indicators
EMA clusters are bearishly aligned: Price below EMA20 ($3,145), EMA50 ($3,210), and EMA200 ($3,450). Supertrend is bearish and trailing stop forms resistance at $3,301. Remaining below the Ichimoku cloud confirms trend weakness. ADX at 28 indicates medium trend strength, but -DI dominates +DI.
Critical Support and Resistance Analysis
Support zones: $2,951.3476 (65/100, daily pivot + Fib 61.8%), $2,810.5083 (65/100, weekly low), $2,623.5700 (60/100, monthly swing low). Resistance zones: $3,008.1673 (76/100, EMA20 + channel top), $3,249.9774 (64/100, Fib 38.2%). Multi-timeframe: 14 strong levels – 1D (3 supports/2 resistances), 3D (2S/2R), 1W (3S/2R). If price tests $2,951, first reaction is expected; breakdown opens path to $2,810. Short opportunities prominent at resistances.
Volume and Market Participation
24-hour volume at $26.07 billion is high; this level on a down day confirms selling pressure and indicates distribution. OBV (On-Balance Volume) shows negative divergence, buyer volume low. VWAP daily at $3,050 acts as resistance, remaining below it is bearish. Spot-futures basis negative, long position liquidations continue. Overall participation seller-weighted, buyers on the sidelines.
Risk Assessment
Risk/reward ratio from current level ($2,971) is unbalanced: bearish target $2,000 (approx. 1:3 R/R for longs) vs. bullish $3,000 (1:2 R/R for shorts). Main risks: If BTC breaks $88,385 support, cascade effect on ETH with fast drop to $2,600. Positive risk: Break above $3,008 triggers short squeeze to $3,250. Volatility high (ATR 4%+), stop-losses recommended above $3,050 and below $2,900. In macro context, rising BTC dominance crushes altcoins; overall risk bearish.
Bitcoin Correlation
BTC at $89,272 with 3.50% drop in downtrend, Supertrend bearish; ETH correlates with BTC at 0.85. BTC main supports $88,385, $86,664, $84,681 – breakdown loses ETH $2,800. Resistances $90,300, $92,491; BTC recovery could lift ETH to $3,100. Rising BTC dominance pressures ETH/BTC pair (currently 0.0333); BTC weakness carries additional 10% downside risk for ETH.
Conclusion and Strategic Outlook
ETH’s technical picture is clearly bearish: Downtrend, indicator confluence, and volume confirmation make $2,951 support critical. On breakdown, $2,623-$2,000 bearish targets activate; on hold, $3,008 short-covering rally possible. Strategy: Shorts above $3,000 targeting $2,800 (R/R 1:2+); longs conditional from supports. Await BTC above $90k. Long-term $4,000 potential exists but short-term selling pressure dominates. This analysis provides a full market picture to guide decision-makers.
This analysis uses Chief Analyst Devrim Cacal’s market views and methodology.
