BCH, with a weekly 6.41% drop, is maintaining its sideways trend at the $534 level while testing the critical $533.93 support; BTC’s downtrend is pressuring altcoins. Market structure may signal a shift to the accumulation phase if support holds, while a breakdown will determine the direction.
BCH in the Weekly Market Summary
BCH traded in the $533.30 – $577.00 range last week, experiencing a 6.41% loss and positioning at $534.10. Market volume remained at a moderate level with $307.43M, while the overall trend maintains its sideways character. Although short-term bearish signals (below EMA20 $551.91) dominate, the MACD’s positive histogram harbors hidden bullish potential in momentum. RSI 45.43 is balancing in the neutral zone, the trend filter is bearish, and the $647 resistance stands strong. In the big picture, BCH is in a long-term sideways consolidation phase; BTC’s downtrend pressure is limiting altcoin performance. For position traders, this week’s $534 support test is the main focus – a hold could trigger accumulation, while a breakdown may trigger distribution.
Trend Structure and Market Phases
Long-Term Trend Analysis
On long-term charts, BCH has been moving within a broad sideways channel since the end of 2025; the lower band is around $423, and the upper band is around $821. Market structure carries an intact bullish bias with higher lows, but general weakness prevails in altcoins due to rising BTC dominance. Trend persistence depends on holding above $480.75 – if this level breaks, the long-term trend could undergo a bearish revision. Positive histogram divergence in MACD indicates that momentum has bottomed out; this could signal preparation for accumulation on a monthly horizon. For portfolio managers, sideways trends create opportunity windows: low volatility periods are ideal for building positions.
Accumulation/Distribution Analysis
Volume profile analysis shows intense accumulation traces in the $533-$577 range; the weekly volume decline along with the price shift to the lower band suggests that smart money is buying at support. Distribution patterns are not yet clear – upper wicks were rejected at $577, but the low-volume decline points to liquidity cleanup rather than panic selling. Accumulation phase characteristics dominate: RSI divergence and rebound potential after testing below EMA20. If $533.93 holds, a spring setup consistent with Wyckoff accumulation schematics could form. Conversely, a high-volume breakdown initiates distribution and opens the door to $355 downside. Strategically, this phase transition offers position traders an R/R of 1:3+ opportunity.
Multi-Timeframe Confluence
Daily Chart View
On the daily timeframe, BCH exhibits a bearish short-term structure below EMA20 ($551.91); balanced with 4 support/5 resistance confluence, but $533.93 (score 73/100) is the main pivot. RSI 45 is neutral, MACD histogram positive – momentum confluence points to bullish bias. Price action is testing resistance with lower highs; if $546.66 breaks, the daily uptrend remains intact. Among 15 strong levels, the daily chart has 60% resistance weight, requiring short-term caution.
Weekly Chart View
On the weekly chart, the sideways channel is clear: $533-$669 range, balanced with 3S/3R confluence. The upper band $669.60 was rejected, and the lower band $533.93 is in testing phase. Trend structure remains intact as there is no lower low; MACD crossover is anticipated. On the 3-day timeframe, support weight increases with 3S/2R – suitable for position build-up on the weekly horizon.
Critical Decision Points
Main supports: $533.9333 (73/100, high confluence), $480.7488 (65/100), $423.0000 (65/100). Resistances: $546.6583 (92/100, first test), $575.3988 (84/100), $669.6000 (69/100). Inflection point $534 – hold leads to bullish continuation, breakdown to bearish cascade. Upside objective $821.9988 (score 4), downside risk $355.9248 (score 22); R/R ratio is attractive for strategic entries. These levels define market direction with multi-TF confluence.
Weekly Strategy Recommendation
In Case of Upside
If $533.93 holds and $546.66 breaks, long positions can be taken targeting $575 – stop below $533. Second target $669, ultimate $822. R/R 1:4+ with BTC confirmation above $67k. Monitor the spot market for detailed BCH spot analysis. Scale-in recommendation with accumulation phase confirmation.
In Case of Downside
If $533 breaks, short opportunities targeting $480, stop above $546. Downside cascade could extend to $423-$356. Strengthens below BTC $65k. Optimize leverage management with BCH futures market data. Use trailing stop after distribution confirmation.
Bitcoin Correlation
BCH shows high correlation with BTC (%0.85+); BTC downtrend ($66,202, -2.03%) is pressuring altcoins. If BTC supports at $65,632/$64,072/$60,000 do not hold, BCH $480 cascade risk increases. If BTC resistances $67,640/$69,434 break, BCH relief rally carries to $575+. BTC Supertrend bearish and rising dominance signal altcoin caution – BCH should wait for BTC stabilization at $71k for independent movement. Follow BTC context in BCH and other analyses.
Conclusion: Key Points for Next Week
Next week, the $533.93 support test and BTC $65k movement are in focus – expect accumulation rally on hold, distribution deepening on breakdown. Look for volume increase and RSI divergence confirmation; position traders stay R/R focused. Market phase transition will shape monthly horizon opportunities.
This analysis uses the market views and methodology of Chief Analyst Devrim Cacal.
