BARD’s market structure is moving in a horizontal consolidation phase; holding above the short-term EMA20 ($0.77) supports the bullish trend, while Supertrend’s bearish signal points to resistance at $1.05. For structure break (BOS), above $0.9050 is bullish confirmation, below $0.8006 is critical bearish reversal.
Market Structure Overview
BARD’s current market structure is consolidating in a horizontal range without showing a clear higher highs/higher lows (HH/HL) or lower highs/lower lows (LH/LL) pattern in recent periods. Price is balancing at $0.83, with a 24-hour change of -0.90% under slight pressure; however, the daily range is squeezed between $0.81-$0.87. Looking at the multi-timeframe (MTF) structure, a total of 12 strong levels have been identified across 1D/3D/1W timeframes: 3 supports/1 resistance on 1D, 2S/2R on 3D, and 3S/4R distribution on 1W, highlighting resistance dominance in higher timeframes. This points to a structure limiting short-term recovery potential. EMA structure is bullish short-term (above EMA20: $0.77), but Supertrend is bearish and $1.05 resistance is strong. RSI at 57.28 is neutral-bullish, MACD provides momentum support with a positive histogram. Overall, sideways structure dominates; waiting for BOS for a clear trend.
Trend Analysis: Uptrend or Downtrend?
Uptrend Signals
Early signals for higher highs and higher lows (HH/HL) structure are present: Holding above the recent swing low at $0.8006 (score 78/100) forms a higher low from previous bottoms ($0.7429) and supports EMA20. This confirms short-term bullish trend; with price at $0.83 maintaining this structure, MACD’s bullish histogram and RSI 57’s upward-focused neutrality could boost momentum. Continuation of HH/HL requires a break above $0.9050 swing high; surpassing this level could bring $1.5054 target (score 15) into play, as MTF supports (1D 3S) are stacked below.
Downtrend Risk
Lower highs/lower lows (LH/LL) risk is evident with Supertrend’s bearish signal and $0.9050 resistance (score 88/100): The horizontal structure carries potential to form an LH pattern, especially with 4R excess on the 1W timeframe increasing bearish pressure. A break below $0.8006 triggers LH/LL, opening bearish targets toward $0.7429 and $0.6843 swing lows at $0.4272 (score 28). BTC’s downtrend reinforces this risk.
Structure Break (BOS) Levels
Structure break (Break of Structure – BOS) levels confirm trend changes: Bullish BOS requires a close above $0.9050 swing high (88/100); this confirms HH/HL structure and paves the way to $1.05 Supertrend resistance with EMA20 support. Bearish BOS is below $0.8006 swing low (78/100); this creates CHoCH (Change of Character), confirms transition to LH/LL, and spills toward $0.7429. In MTF, 1W resistances (4R) complicate bullish BOS, while 1D supports (3S) cushion bearish breaks. Without BOS, sideways continues; educational note: BOS is the invalidation of the trend by breaking the last swing point.
Swing Points and Their Importance
Recent Swing Highs
Recent swing high at $0.9050 (score 88/100) defines the upper band of the horizontal structure as strong resistance. This level is key for BOS; a break forms HH, while staying below increases LH risk. Previous highs overlap with MTF resistances (3D/1W total 6R), raising rejection probability – monitor volume increase as price approaches here.
Recent Swing Lows
Recent swing low at $0.8006 (78/100) is the main support, critical for HL pattern; holding preserves bullish structure. Lower supports at $0.7429 (75/100) and $0.6843 (69/100), with 8S accumulation in MTF (1D/3D/1W), brake deep declines. These lows act as buffers to prevent LL formation; a break becomes bearish CHoCH.
Bitcoin Correlation
BTC at $68,931 in downtrend (-2.37%), Supertrend bearish and rising dominance signal caution for altcoins. BARD will test $0.8006 support if BTC slips below key supports $65,786/$62,148; if BTC fails to break $70,217 resistance, BARD’s sideways evolves into LH/LL. BTC recovery ($73,808+) could trigger BARD’s bullish BOS – correlation is high, prioritize BTC levels. Details in BARD Spot Analysis and BARD Futures Analysis.
Structural Outlook and Expectations
Horizontal structure dominates, short-term HL potential bullish with EMA20 support, but higher TF resistances (1W 4R) and BTC downtrend increase bearish risk. Monitor BOS levels ($0.9050 up, $0.8006 down); bullish scenario targets $1.5054, bearish $0.4272. Wait for swing breaks for CHoCH – structural education: Trend is defined by consecutive HH/HL or LH/LL, BOS is the invalidation point. Lack of news keeps structure technically focused; trade carefully.
This analysis uses Chief Analyst Devrim Cacal’s market views and methodology.
