The second diamond ring during the total eclipse of the Sun, November 14, 2012, from a site near … [+]
Universal Images Group via Getty Images
Texas is the best place for the total solar eclipse, right? It has a higher chance of clear skies. Whether that holds true or the presumed-to-be-cloudy northeast U.S. and Canada are now back in play is up in the air.
The climate is now unimportant. All that matters for eclipse-chasers is the weather forecasts, which are worth reading from today—seven days out from Monday, April 8’s total solar eclipse—for the first time.
“What makes the best observing location is, firstly, somewhere in the path of totality,” said Dr. Tyler Nordgren, an Ithaca, New York-based astronomer, author of Sun Moon Earth and eclipse artist at Space Art Travel Bureau, in an interview. “Provided you’re in the path totality, the best location is wherever it’s clear,” said Nordgren.
Finding a clear sky is going to be the trick for this eclipse—here’s how to do that.
What The Seven-Day Weather Forecast Tell Us
Most supercomputer models run today forecast Texas and Arkansas to be the cloudiest parts of the path of totality on April 8. The clearest skies are, seven days out, forecast for lakes Erie and Ontario in northeastern Ohio and Western New York, as well as in Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine.
This is the exact opposite of what climate statistics hint at, but almost exactly what happened on April 8, 2023.
Is It Too Early To Look At Weather Forecasts?
Probably—but it’s now hard to resist. “If you have the luxury of being able to travel at the last minute, I highly recommend looking at weather models when they tend to solidify, which is about three days out,” said Nordgren. “Around April 1, certainly by April 5, look at the weather models of where’s going to be cloudy and where’s going to be clear—and go to wherever is clear the path in totality.”
Come Up With A Plan B
Whatever the forecasts say today, consider making preparations to move and/or be mobile on April 8. It may be necessary to relocate on the day of the eclipse. Where will you go? Perhaps you won’t go anywhere, choosing to stay with Plan A and receive whatever nature throws at you with glee. However, you’ll need wheels if you’re intent on maximizing your chances of a clear sky. You’ll need to get up incredibly early (try two hours before you think). And you’ll need to know where to go looking for a clear sky.
Study historical satellite imagery of cloud cover and there’s a clear lesson. “You may see that the chances of a clear sky for a specific location are slim, but you’ll also see that if you had a 100-mile range, you would have been able to see the eclipse on eight out of the last 10 years,” said Jay Anderson, who plans eclipse expeditions and whose climatological analysis of eclipse tracks on his website Eclipsophile is avidly read by eclipse chasers.
It’s important to know that the priority here is to avoid low cloud. High cirrus cloud is not so much of a problem — you’ll likely see the eclipsed sun through it. Not ideal, but not impossible to cope with
Also remember that cumulus clouds over land can disappear almost instantly when a partial solar eclipse begins. Eclipse cooling starts about halfway between the beginning of the partial eclipse and totality. It may help It may not
Which Weather Forecast To Look At
How do you choose? There are so many different supercomputer models to choose from. What do expert eclipse chasers use? What they won’t do is stick with one model, which is what many branded weather channels do. They pick a few, the most popular being ECMWF and GFS. “The thing I like about Windy is that it gives me access to the ECM WF model, which is actually pretty hard to get in North America,” said Anderson. “With a one-button click, you can switch between the ECM WF and the GFS model and look at how each one of them treats the cloud.” It’s best to stick to two or three models, said Anderson. Windy.com offers models like ECMWF, GFS, ICON, NAM and HRRR. Other options popular with eclipse chasers include pivotalweather.com, which has 26 models,
Bounce Between Models
Flick between those models to see where places are clear or not, but don’t rush it. “Three days before the eclipse will give you a measure of confidence in the forecast,” said Anderson. If two of the models say it’s going to be clear in northern Texas and one says it’s going to be partly cloudy, then you can wait one more day, or you can go with the consensus.”
How Anderson makes decisions is by bouncing between two or three models and firming up decisions three, and then two days at a time. “Keep an eye on the models—they should all converge to the same because their goal is to represent the actual weather,” he said. “They may be wildly divergent five days out but you can watch them come together—but there are always uncertainties.” Anderson starts looking seriously five days out and makes plans three days out if weather systems are organized, “but there are times when you have to make a decision four hours out,” he said.
Don’t Panic, Texas
Texas, which has been considered the “It State” for this eclipse for so long, is suddenly not looking so good. What to do? Don’t panic! “If it’s cloudy in the morning in Texas, it may burn away by eclipse time,” said Anderson. Phew! “But it’s going to cool during the eclipse, so that cloud might very well come back in again.” Oh. Anderson’s tip for clear sky-hunters in Texas—and elsewhere—is not to hang right on the edge of the low cloud. “Get deeper into the clear sky because this cooling can recreate the lower layers and fog you had before,” he said. “Err very much on the side of caution when it comes to clearing at the last minute or the hour before the eclipse starts.”
There is one crumb of comfort for those in Texas—the eclipse will occur a little early in the day for thunderstorms. “I would use one of the regional models to get a better handle on where the convection might be,” said Anderson. “Even though the thunderstorms may not have formed before the eclipse, the early convection will disappear when it starts to cool during the eclipse.”
Ideal Scenario
Your ideal scenario on April 8 may well be to be on the centerline of the path of totality on a clear day and maximize everything—duration, your view, perhaps even finding a location away from crowds and roads, and a traffic-free journey home—but you cannot control most of this.
Forget that this will be the longest totality in the U.S. since 1806 and focus on the absolute basics:
- It’s better to have a clear view of the totally eclipsed sun for a single second than to be on the centerline under clouds.
- A cloudy eclipse within the path of totality is better than a clear eclipse outside the path of totality.
Submit To Nature’s Will
If it is to be cloudy where you are, relax. Enjoy it. As the light levels dive 1,000 times in that last minute before totality, take a deep breath, open up your body and let the moon’s shadow swallow you up for a few murky, magical minutes.
When the umbra leaves you and daylight returns, make a decision to be underneath it again one day. Go chase a “Great Un-American Eclipse” and see where it takes you. You won’t ever regret it.
For the latest on all aspects of April 8’s total solar eclipse in North America, check my main feed for new articles each day.
Wishing you clear skies and wide eyes.
