THE ongoing face-off between the presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Atiku Abubakar, and the G5 governors led by Governor Nyesom Wike of Rivers State, is without doubt, one of the biggest political developments of 2022 in Nigeria. It was unforeseen, as was the case with many of the country’s political events of that year.
But, among the major events to look out for in 2023 is one that is already known — the forthcoming 2023 general elections. The quadrennial electoral contests across the country will usher in new leadership for the country and in 29 out of the 36 states of the federation. According to the timetable of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) the presidential and gubernatorial elections will hold on February 25 and March 11, 2023 respectively.
But apart from the elections, there are several other major political events in the pipeline. Some of these events are follow-ups to some of the happenings of last year while others are new beginnings within and outside government and political circles. Among them is the mandatory swearing-in of a new president. This will take place on the 29th of May. Same day, new and re-elected governors will take office in most of the states of the federation.
A new leadership will also emerge in the New Year for the National Assembly that will go by the name 10th Assembly. In the early days of June 2023, the 10th Assembly will be convened. Of course, the scramble for the principal positions in both the upper and lower chambers of the National Assembly will commence long before then. The Federal Executive Council (FEC) will also be reconstituted this year by the new president that will take office next May.
Also, staggered governorship elections will be conducted in some states of the federation in 2023. These are parts of the seven states excluded from the 2023 general elections. Kogi, Imo and Bayelsa are states will witness guber elections later in the year. And if current predictions by political analysts turn out to be true, there will be a fierce struggle for the soul of the opposition PDP in the event that Atiku Abubakar, its presidential candidate, loses the 2023 presidential election.
To former National Chairman of the APC, Comrade Adams Oshiomhole, the PDP should be thinking about life after the 2023 general elections. According to the former Edo state governor, the current crisis rocking the main opposition PDP was a clear indication of outright victory for APC in the forthcoming 2023 general elections. According to him, Atiku had depleted the opposition party’s chances by offending some of those who ought to be major backers of his campaign, citing the scenario with the G-5 Governors.
But former Oyo State deputy governor, Barrister Hazeem Gbolarumi, boasted that with or without the G-5 Governors, Atiku will win the 2023 presidential election and go ahead to reposition the country and the PDP. He looks forward to a future where Atiku, as president will correct the many anomalies within the opposition PDP. This was just as former Minister of State for FCT, Oloye Olajumoke Akinjide, assured that the lingering crisis be-devilling the party at the national level would be amicably resolved before the February 25 presidential election.
But pundits are of the opinion that should Atiku lose the presidential election, the crisis within the PDP will fester as a fierce struggle for the control of the party between the camp of the presidential candidate and forces loyal to the G5 will further tear the troubled party apart. It is unlikely that either of the camps will peacefully allow itself to be outwitted by the other in what promises to be a do-or-die struggle for the PDP after the 2023 general elections.
February/March: General elections
The presidential elections, which will come first, same day with National Assembly elections, will be held on February 25, 2023 across the country. Observers at home and abroad have been tipping the contest to be one of the most interesting presidential elections to hold in Nigeria. One, incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress (APC), is term-limited and will not be participating in the contest.
Secondly, for the first time since 2019, Nigerians are seeing a contest that is not the usual two horse-races. The contention for the presidency up till this moment is widely regarded to be among at least three major political parties. Considered as the front runners in the presidential race are Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the APC, Atiku Abubakar of the PDP, Peter Obi of the Labour Party (LP) and Rabiu Musa Kwakwanso of the New Nigerian Peoples Party (NNPP).
While most pundits still insist the race is actually between the ruling APC and the main opposition PDP, the influences being wielded by the Labour Party in some states in the south and the NNPP in Kano state, as the electioneering campaigns continue, cannot be ignored. And these have brought an unusual dimension to the forthcoming contest as many people believe that the presence of both LP and NNPP in the race will in some ways determine the final winner between APC and PDP.
The presidential contest is further made interesting by the festering crack within the main opposition party, the PDP. Governor Nyesom Wike’s had last year pulled out of the campaign Council of the party’s presidential candidate. They insisted that the National Chairman of the PDP, Senator Iyorchia Ayu, must resign for them to rescind their decision. They insisted that the position must come to the South for balance, justice, and equity in the party, hence they will not play any role in Atiku Abubakar’s campaign council.
The other governors with Wike are IfeanyiUgwuanyi (Enugu), OkezieIkpeazu (Abia) and SeyiMakinde (Oyo) and Samuel Ortom of Benue state. Ayu however says he is not about to quit his position. Atiku is supporting the embattled chairman to stay in office. Several peace efforts to end the crisis failed as the G5 governors promised to name their preferred presidential candidate soon. This is just as Atiku’s camp warns Wike and his embittered colleague-governors that their move against him would end their political careers.
Speaking through one of his campaign spokesman, Senator Dino Melaye, Atiku warned that, “no blackmail, hate, or outrageous envy will stop Atiku. I pray it is not true (G-5 governors’ imminent endorsement of their preferred candidate). Attacking Atiku will cost them their political future. My advice to the G-5 is ‘don’t end your political career because of an inordinate ambition and capricious manifestation that will yield no result.’ If they take that step, it will be the last kick of a dying horse.” As the presidential election draws closer, the crisis appears to be getting messier.
May 29: Swearing-in
May 29, 2023 will be a public holiday. This year, the public holiday will be a special one as a new President of the country will take the oath of office that day in Abuja. With President Muhammadu Buhari completing his second term and consequently not participating in the forthcoming presidential election, it is certain that a new president will be sworn in that day. It is obvious that one of the front runners in the race will emerge the next president of the country. To Most pundits, the seat will be taken by either Asiwaju Tinubu of the APC or Atiku of the PDP.
The day was initially the official Democracy Day in Nigeria, marking when the newly elected Olusegun Obasanjo took office as the President of Nigeria in 1999, after decades of military rule that began in 1966 and had been interrupted only by a brief period of democracy from 1979 to 1983. But in June 2018, President Buhari directed that effective 2019, Nigeria’s Democracy Day be shifted from May 29 to June 12 to honour Moshood Abiola, the winner of the 1993 presidential election. But both dates have been declared as public holidays ever since.
The inauguration of the eventual winner of the February 25, 2023 presidential election as the next President of Nigeria will hold at Abuja’s Eagle Square, Abuja on May 29, 2023. The inauguration ceremony at the Square is usually followed by a Dinner and Gala Night at the State House Conference Center later in the evening of the same day. Across the country, winners of the governorship elections in the various states will also be sworn in to begin a term of four years. It is usually a day of much rejoicing, especially for members and chieftains of victorious political parties across the country.
June: 10th Assembly
The 10th session of the National Assembly, which will be christened the 10th Assembly, will be inaugurated in June 2023. New leaderships will also be put in place for the upper and lower chambers of the Assembly, namely the Senate and the House of Representatives. Definitely, a new Senate President as well as a new House Speaker will take charge of the chambers after the inauguration of the new session. This is because incumbent Senate President, Ahmed Lawan will not be returning to the senate as he is not on the ballot as a contender his current seat.
On the other hand, though current Speaker Femi Gabjabiamila is seeking a return to the House from Surulere Federal Constituency on the platform of APC, he is not likely to be favoured as Speaker by the zoning arrangement of the ruling party. The party’s presidential candidate, Tinubu, is from the same Lagos State in the southwest geopolitical zone as Gbajabiamila. Thus, it is unlikely that he will retain his seat as Speaker even if he is re-elected by his constituents during the February 25, 2023 National Assembly elections.
The deputy Senate President, Ovie Omo-Agege, will also not be coming back in 2023. He is currently gunning for the governorship of his home state of Delta in the 2023 gubernatorial elections. Not less than 55 other current senators have also failed to pick the tickets of their various political parties and will not be contesting the next National Assembly elections. Majority of the Senators who won’t be returning are either members of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) or the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). There are 109 senators in the Nigerian Senate.
Some of the other Senators who won’t make it back to the Senate Chambers are Ibikunle Amosun (Ogun Central); Ajayi Boroffice (Ondo North); Rochas Okorocha (Imo West); Taraba Senator Emmanuel Bwacha; Kaduna Senator Uba San (Kaduna Central); Aishatu Dahiru of Adamawa; Teslim Folarin (Oyo North); Sandy Onor (Cross River Central); Nora Daduut of Plateau South, Theodore Orji of Abia Central; Oluremi Tinubu of Lagos Central; Dimka Hezekiah (Plateau Central); Gyang Istifanus (Plateau North) and Smart Adeyemi (Kogi West).
Others are Yakubu Oseni (Kogi Central); Sabi Abdullahi (Niger North); Godiya Akwashiki (Nasarawa North); Ibrahim Oloriegbe (Kwara Central); Orker-Jev Emmanuel (Benue North West); Yusuf Yusuf (Taraba Central) and Amos Bulus (Gombe South); Ayo Akinyelure (Ondo Central); Tolu Odebiyi (Ogun West); Matthew Urhoghide (Edo South); Gershom Bassey (Cross River South); James Manager (Delta South); George Sekibo (Rivers East); Betty Apiafi (Rivers West); Albert Bassey (Akwa Ibom North East) and Chris Ekpenyong (Akwa Ibom North West).
There will also be a good number of new comers to the House of Representatives in the 10th Assembly. The House has 360 seats occupied by lawmakers from the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT). Among the current lawmakers, 130 members lost in the primary elections of their various political parties and would not stand in the 25 February National Assembly election. The number of those who will not be returning to the lower chamber may be more because aside the 130 members, some others can still lose at the general elections.
The high turnover of lawmakers, according to observers, may be a continuation of what happened at the inauguration of the 10th session of the House in 2019. When the 9th Assembly was inaugurated, there were more than 200 new members, against a little over 130 returning members. The turnover cuts across all the political parties. With 137 newly elected legislators reporting to the chamber on inauguration day, the ruling APC had the highest number of new lawmakers, while the PDP was next, with 59 new members.
Another significant thing to watch out for in the 10th Assembly is the possible arrival of some current governors or former governors as Senators. Almost 30 of such incumbent or former state governors are currently on the ballots as candidate of their respective political parties for the February 25 National Assembly elections. In the current National Assembly, whose life will expire on June 11, 2023, there are 14 former governors serving as senators representing districts from the north and south of the country.
Adams Oshiomhole, Dave Umahi, Aminu Tambuwal, Darius Ishaku, Samuel Ortom, Okezie Ikpeazu, Abubakar Sani Bello, Ibrahim Danwkambo, Abdulaziz Yari, Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi, Simon Lalong, Gbenga Daniel, Aliyu Wammako, Kabiru Gaya, Chimaroke Nnamani, Umar Al-makura, Danjuma Goje, Orji Kalu, Ibrahim Gaidam, Seriake Dickson, Saminu Turaki, Gabriel Suswan, Adamu Aliero, Sam Egwu, Atiku Bagudu, are among some incumbent and former governors currently scrambling for a seat in the senate.
Staggered guber polls
Although the March 2023 gubernatorial elections will not hold in Kogi, Imo and Bayelsa states, these states will witness guber elections later in the year. The governorship elections in these states are something to look forward to politically in the New Year. The 2023 Kogi State gubernatorial election will take place on 11 November 2023. Incumbent APC Governor Yahaya Bello is term-limited and cannot seek re-election to a third term. The outcome of the 2023 presidential election and the preference of Governor Bello are factors expected to influence the eventual outcome of the Kogi guber race.
Among those already being tipped to gun for the seat is Hon. Abiodun Faleke, the Secretary of APC Presidential campaign committee and House of Representatives member for Ikeja Federal Constituency of Lagos State. He was the 2015 APC deputy gubernatorial candidate in Kogi State. Edward David Onoja, the current Deputy Governor of the state and Senator Smart Adeyemi, incumbent Senator representing Kogi West in the National Assembly, are also alleged to be warming up to throw their hats into the ring for the contest.
Similarly, the 2023 Bayelsa State gubernatorial election will take place on 11 November 2023. Governor Douye Diri of the PDP, who will be rounding up his first term of four years, is eligible to run for re-election. While he is yet to declare his interest, close aides confirmed that he will be seeking another term in office. The election promises to be a very interesting one as the ruling PDP and the APC will be renewing their age-long rivalry that was partly determined by the Courts and not the voters in 2019.
During the 2019 governorship election, the APC gubernatorial nominee David Lyon, dramatically won the governorship election by a large margin. But PDP’s Diri was declared elected after Lyon was disqualified before the inauguration by the Supreme Court. While supporters of the governor believes he has performed well enough to retain his seat, chieftains of the APC insist that the PDP is unpopular in the state and as such, cannot win the 2023 governorship election with or without Diri.
Governor Diri is believed to be interested in seeking a second term on the platform of the PDP. Likely to challenge him for the ticket of the party is Timi Alaibe, a former Managing Director/CEO of the Niger Delta Development Commission (NDDC) who contested the ticket with Diri in 2019. In the APC, aside Lyon, the 2019 candidate who is said to be preparing to contest the guber election again, Timipre Sylva, current Minister of State for Petroleum Resources and Peremobowei Ebebi, a former deputy governor of the state are being named as possibly contenders.
In Imo, Governor Hope Uzodinma will be seeking another term in office during the November governorship election in the state. Within the ruling APC, many names are already cropping up as potential contenders for the party’s governorship ticket. Ifeanyi Ararume, former Senator that represented Imo North, Jude Ejiogu, former Secretary to Imo State Government (SSG), Chukwuemeka Nwajiuba, former Minister of State for Education, as well as Uche Nwosu, the 2019 Action Alliance gubernatorial candidate in the state, are some of those being tipped to challenge Uzodinma for the APC ticket.
The opposition PDP is seeking to return to power in the state. Some chieftains of the party are already showing interest in contesting the November gubernatorial election in the state. Among these are former Governor and former House of Representatives Deputy Speaker, Emeka Ihedioha. The National Secretary of the PDP and the former Senator representing Imo East, Samuel Anyanwu, is another potential contender. Also being named in the gubernatorial race is Jerry Alagbaoso, the House of Representatives member for Oru East/Orsu/Orlu Federal Constituency.
via: https://thenationonlineng.net/political-players-events-to-watch-for/
