Opponents of Newsom’s Prop. 1 mental health bond concede likely defeat

Governor Gavin Newsom’s mental health bond measure Proposition 1 continues to hang on to its narrow lead, prompting leaders of the opposition movement to concede likely defeat on Tuesday.

The measure, which requires a simple majority to pass, was supported by 50.4% of voters and opposed by 49.6% as of Tuesday afternoon’s vote update.

“We almost took down the bear, but it looks like we will fall short. Today, as the principal opponents of Proposition 1, we concede that it is almost certain to pass,” said Californians Against Proposition 1 in a Tuesday morning statement.

Prop. 1 is a $6.4 billion bond measure that seeks to overhaul the state’s approach to mental health by vastly increasing the number of treatment beds and supportive housing facilities.

It would direct $4.4 billion to create 10,000 new mental health beds and $2 billion for homeless housing projects. Half of the new housing units would would be reserved for veterans with mental illness or substance use issues.

In addition, the measure would require counties to spend 30% of revenue from the Mental Health Services Act on housing. This voter-approved act generates between $2 billion and $3.5 billion a year for mental health services through a 1% tax on incomes greater than $1 million.

Newsom touted the measure as a way to “fix our broken mental health system and provide those living on our streets and suffering from substance abuse the care they need.”

He raised over $20 million to promote the measure and rallied the support of many influential groups including the National Alliance on Mental Illness California, California Hospital Association, labor union SEIU California and the California Chamber of Commerce.

The “No on Prop. 1” campaign raised very little in comparison. It was led by mental health advocates such as Disability Rights California, who feared that changing funding priorities for the Mental Health Services Act would result in service cuts to existing mental health programs. The groups also objected to funding mental health treatment beds that could compel people to accept involuntarily treatment.

Other opponents, such as the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association, objected to the high amount of government spending.

“Our grassroots campaign was hard-pressed to compete with $20 million on the ‘yes’ side, a campaign so overconfident and overstuffed with cash that they ran a Super Bowl ad,” the opposition statement said. “Still, we almost won. Our message and our truth were that powerful.”

While initial polls indicated that two-thirds of likely voters in California were in favor of the measure, that support slipped to 59% in the weeks before the election, according to the Public Policy Institute of California.

Supporters of Prop. 1 have not yet declared victory. It’s passage would be a major political win for Newsom, who had opted to put the measure on the March ballot so that it would not have to compete for attention with other measures in November.

That decision almost proved disastrous as the primary electorate skewed conservative and the measure teetered on the edge of failure during successive ballot updates. At one time, there were just 13,000 votes, in a state with 22 million registered voters, standing between its passage and its failure.

Nevertheless, the share of ballots favoring the measure has ticked up in recent updates and it appears to be poised to narrowly pass. The secretary of state’s office will continue providing periodic vote updates and is scheduled to certify results by April 12.