Six days before the presidential election, we publish excerpts from a review of Civic Hive, a Foundation established by BudgIT Foundation with the goal of creating an innovative virtual and physical space for partnerships and raising civic tech leaders/solutions in Nigeria, of the policy documents of the three leading candidates: Alhaji Atiku Abubakar (Peoples Democratic Party, PDP), Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu (All Progressives Congress, APC) and Mr Peter Obi (Labour Party).
Atiku:
The candidate’s proposed policy plan entitled ‘My Covenant with Nigerians’ identifies the following as areas of primary concern:
• Restoration of Nigeria’s unity through effective management of national diversity;
• Deepening of democratic values to secure and protect;
• Building inclusive economic growth that generates wealth and reduces poverty;
• Realigning of Nigeria’s federal system, structure and process; and
• STEM-focused investment in education.
Media Interviews and Lectures
• Restructuring: ‘The Federal Government is too big and too powerful relative to the federating units. That situation needs to change and calling for that change is patriotic’.
• State Police: ‘State Police is now a necessity’.
• Anti-Corruption: ‘Refocusing of government anti-corruption initiatives to include the launching of a comprehensive national anti-corruption strategy, expeditious passage of whistle-blower, witness protection, electronic evidence, and cyber-crime legislations; consideration of amnesty for corrupt persons willing to surrender product of crime.’
• Political Zoning: ‘The candidate advocated for geopolitical zoning of offices within the PDP in 2010 as a tool of inclusion, but reversed the position in 2022, stating that ‘PDP Should Focus on Winning, Not Zoning’.
Originality and coherence
The 20,337 word and 74-page document is well designed and themes are discussed per chapter, with the copious use of the candidate’s pictures. The policy document is largely original and passed the plagiarism test, however, it is laden with buzzwords and socioeconomic terms that are not defined to reflect any specific orthodoxy.
The policy document is consistent and coherent, moving from identified problems to proposed solutions, sequentially. The document also projects the candidate’s experience in economic reform and political transformation.
Thematic focus and context
ECONOMY
The candidate’s ambitious economic proposal includes the following definite and quantifiable plans:
• To raise GDP per capita from approximately US$2,000 dollars to US$5,000 dollars by 2030;
• Expand Nigeria’s export base;
• To make manufacturing 30% of GDP;
• To create 3 million new jobs and lift 10 million poor Nigerians out of poverty yearly;
• To make Nigeria Africa’s leading FDI destination.
The candidate plans to achieve this through:
• Institutional reform;
• Economic de-regularization and liberation of such nature that breaks government monopoly;
• Restore investor’s confidence and generate more FDI and DDI;
• Policies and measures to boost export;
• Reforms to reposition the private sector; and
• Optimization of the potential of the non-oil sector.
INFRASTRUCTURE
Target 10,000MW transmission capacity over the short term and 25,000MW power generation through a mix of energy sources;
• 1 million housing units;
• Increase refining capacity to 2 million barrels per day;
• Construction of 5,000km of modern railway lines;
• Construction of 70,000km of road network.
The candidate plans to achieve this through a mix of the following plans:
• Doubling of national infrastructure stock to approximately 70% of GDP by
2030;
• Invest a minimum of US$35 billion dollars annually in the next 5 years to finance all the core public infrastructure projects;
• Establishment of a specialised infrastructure unit in the presidency;
• Promotion of public-private partnership and incentivising private sector actors
to mobilize local and international financing for investment in infrastructure projects;
• Privatisation of government-owned refineries and facilitating new private investment in the sector;
• Allow access to private sector investment in all phases of the power sector;
• Review extant financial, legal and regulatory frameworks to allow private sector participation in infrastructure development.
AGRICULTURE, MANUFACTURING AND MSMES
The candidate proposes to make agriculture, manufacturing and MSMEs the drivers of growth and achieve the following:
• Improve Nigeria’s food security index from the current 40.1% to 70%
• Reduce food import share from the current estimation of 20% to 5-10%
• Achieve a sustained increase in manufacturing output from 9% to 30% of GDP by 2025
• Reduce dependence on imported raw materials
• Increase the MSME funding window from the current N200 billion naira to
N500 billion naira
• Harmonisation of state and federal tax laws to avoid over-taxing businesses
• Increase the inflow of foreign direct investment to a minimum of 2.5% of GDP by 2030
• Embolden the Nigerian Export Processing Zone Authority (NEPZA) in the establishment of Special Economic Zones (SEZs) across the 6 geo-political zones.
• The candidate proposes the following interventions to achieve these objectives:
• State-federal government collaboration toward land regime reform
• Strengthening of markets for agricultural commodities
• De-risking access to finance and facilitating investments in agro-processing clusters
• Modernization and mechanisation of all components in the agricultural value chain
• Effective collaboration with private sector operators in policy generation and implementation
• Robust enforcement of buy-in-Nigeria initiatives
• Establishment of a ‘Technology Support Programme’ (TSP) to support the tech and ICT sector.
HUMAN CAPITAL DEVELOPMENT
• Improve and strengthen the education system to make it more efficient, more accessible, more qualitative and relevant;
• Promote an all-inclusive system which will carry along citizens with special needs;
• Ensure universal access to basic maternal and child health, reproductive health, immunization and mental health as well as effective therapies;
• Government will position itself to deal proactively with emergency epidemics like Ebola, Lassa, COVID-19 and others which occasionally afflict the people;
• Lift 10 million fellow Nigerians out of extreme poverty annually;
• Expand the social protection currently expanding from the current 3.10% of 7% by 2027;
• Institute microcredit scheme for home-based income-generating activities;
• Review and expand scope of the School Feeding Programme;
• Reduce the rate of unemployment and under-employment to a single digit by 2025;
• Target the creation of up to 3 million self and wage-paying employment opportunities in the private sector annually- 1 million apprentices, 2 million jobs, 500,000 student enrolment and 100,000 entrepreneurs.
The policy pathways to achieve this include:
• Initiate the process of a constitutional amendment to devolve the delivery of social and welfare issues to state and local governments;
• Devolve issues bordering on minerals and mines, internal security including Police, law and order, railways, communications, transport, environment, land matters, etc., to the concurrent list;
• Re-launch the National Open Apprenticeship Programme (NOAP) with special focus on young men and women who may not have had the opportunity to attend school or complete basic education. This programme will recruit, annually, 100,000 thousand Master Crafts Persons (MCPs) who will train
• 1,000,000 million apprentices in various trades;
• Introduce, and actively promote, a graduate trainee Internship Programme
(GTI) and improve the technical and financial capacity of the Industrial Training Fund; and
• Create incubation centres, clusters and industrial/commercial hubs to provide a market place for MSMEs and SMPs.
SECURITY
• Inclusive and responsive governance that embraces Nigeria’s diversity as primary tool for promoting national unity;
• Increase police workforce strength to 1,000,000 million personnel;
• Strategic engagement with state and non-state actors in theatres of conflict;
• Streamlining the functions and operations of policing actors in Nigeria to enhance efficiency and effectiveness;
• Emphasize prevention of corruption rather than detection and subsequent sanction;
• Foreign policy thrust that will have the promotion of economic diplomacy at its core.
Practicability and Clarity
ECONOMY summary:
The candidate’s plan focuses heavily on leveraging the private sector for financing infrastructure and economic growth. This is plausible considering the fiscal constraints of the government in addressing Nigeria’s economic challenges. The quest for a stable macroeconomic environment is important for attracting foreign capital and also fixing limiting factors. The plan seeks to prioritise investments in SMEs and also commitments to open up the generation and transmission end of the power chain.
The candidate’s plan for economic productivity and improved manufacturing are built on huge assumptions that might not align with current structural limitations.
Some of the ideas are not reasonable which include raising Nigeria’s GDP per capita to $5,000 by 2030, increasing Nigeria’s refining capacity to 2mbpd The plan to raise GDP per capita by 250% in less than 10 years is historically unattainable, as only around five countries have double their GDP in 15 years, ditto for the plan to make manufacturing 30% of GDP. These two critical components are central to Nigeria’s economic prosperity raising questions about the depth of thought required to turn around Nigeria’s economic decline and how prepared the candidate to handle the economy.
•US$ 2,085.00 dollars
The candidate proposes approximately a 250% increase in GDP in less than 10 years, which is highly
improbable. Available records show that only a few countries (China, South Korea, Botswana, Singapore, and Thailand) have doubled their GDP per capita in less than 15 years . Considering Nigeria’s population growth, Nigeria needs to grow annually by at least 13% annually in the next seven years. The aspiration seeks to achieve the miraculous, which is unsupported by recent economic history.
To raise GDP per capita to US$5,000 dollars by 2030
• 12.67% of GDP
A time series analysis shows that Nigeria at its peak manufacturing era had manufacturing at 21.1% of GDP.
The candidate’s aim of doubling the contribution of the sector to the GDP fails to realistically put in context the drivers of growth in nations that achieved rapid industrial growth and the existing glaring gaps in Nigeria. It is nearly impossible to double Nigeria’s manufacturing output in two years. While initiatives such as reducing import duty, incidences of multiple taxation and Buy-Nigeria for public procurement are welcome, it is still a challenge to see how this raises Nigeria’s manufacturing share of GDP as projected.
ª% 95.1 million Nigerians are projected to living below the poverty line. According to the World Bank, “approximately 40.1 percent of Nigerians were living in poverty, which is about 82.9 million people; poverty reduction had stagnated since 2015”. While the right pillars in poverty reduction were stated, there were no clear quantifiable targets to fully measure how this challenge would be resolved.
Lift 10 million poor Nigerians out of poverty yearly
•Nigeria’s unemployment rate is estimated to be 33.3% and the figure is the highest in over 13years. The candidate has an actionable plan to meet the job target, however, the target falls short of the required 5 million jobs annually for the next 10 years to address Nigeria’s current unemployment rate, putting in perspective Nigeria’s unique demographic structure and a 2.5% annual population growth rate. The road to 3 million jobs if driven by the private sector will be a commendable achievement. These combine shoring up the informal sector, supporting technical colleges and strengthening the ICT pathway.
Create 3 million new jobs a year
•In 2020, Nigeria recorded only $2.93bn as FDI, a drop from $8.84bn as at 2011.
The candidate has a multi-year plan to increase the flow of FDI into the non-oil sector. The plan includes reduction of corporate tax, full repatriation and non-expropriation of assets and easing the regulatory environment among others. While the candidate has a credible roadmap to achieve the goal, achievability depends on non-economic factors such as justice system performance, security and political instability.
However, the need to recognize this opportunity as central to Nigeria’s growth is very plausible. 2.5% of our GDP is approximately $10bn and despite the current investment climate, this still sounds plausible to achieve this even in 2024.
By 2030, increase the inflow of direct foreign investment to a minimum of 2.5% of our GDP.
INFRASTRUCTURE summary:
The candidate’s infrastructural proposals are confidently laid out in numeric terms and there is conceptual clarity on the link between infrastructural development and economic growth. The plan also does well on seeking alternative funding for infrastructure such as Infrastructure Debt Fund (similar to current CBN Infracorp N15tn initiative). It would have been good to itemise infrastructure that the candidates believe is bankable in Nigeria. There is a challenge in stimulating long-term investment in infrastructure with recent experiences of Abuja-Kaduna rail, Abuja metro rail among others. The candidate also has a thought-out plan to involve the private sector in all areas of infrastructural provision.
The power generation, road and rail construction and refining components of the plans are factually unattainable in the short term considering Nigeria’s current poor revenue performance, the cost of implementation, political dynamics and other competing demands prioritised in the plan. Nothing highlights the impracticability of the key proposals under this heading than the plan to construct 5,000km of modern railway lines and 70,000km of the road network. The federal government for which the candidate has total control has only around 32,000km, where is the differential going to come from? Does the candidate plan to take over state and local government roads? Or is there a plan to build new federal roads? And if yes, what are the implications of that for reforms to Nigeria’s federalism that he promotes.
Installed electricity generating capacity stands at 18,000MW, peak generation in the last year is 5,043.4MW and peak transmission is 5,222MW. The current government and Siemens Energy under the Presidential Power Initiative aims to reach 25,000MW by 2028.
While the candidate’s objective of raising power generation and transmission capacity are well laid out, however, it fails to countenance the current government’s investment in its plans. Also, there are questions on the methods of generation to shore up the current generation capacity of around 18,000MW.
The second question remains the funding source. Around N5.864 trillion has been expended between 1999 and 2020 to achieve the current capacity; how does the candidate intend to secure the funds to finance this ambitious plan in the current era of revenue slump and increased demand for investment in infrastructure? How does this promise to align with the current Siemens Power Initiative?
Target 10,000MW transmission capacity over the short term and 25,000MW power generation over the long term.
Inside the Tinubu policy document
The policy document titled- Renewed Hope, 2023- has national security, economy, agriculture, power, oil and gas, transportation, education, the digital economy, sport, entertainment and culture, youth empowerment and entrepreneurship, women empowerment, social programs, judicial reforms, federalism and decentralisation of power and foreign policy as thematic areas of priority.
Media Interviews and Lectures
• Restructuring: “Moving many of the 68 items in the Exclusive List to the Residual List as was the case in the 1963 Constitution will help ensure true federalism, he said. These items include police, prisons, stamp duties, regulation of tourist traffic, registration of business names, incorporation of companies, trade, commerce and census.”
• State Police: “The time has come to take the necessary legal actions to allow for the creation of state police and the recruitment and training of many more police officers. Such state-created forces should be based on the modern tenets of community policing and optimal relations and cooperation with local communities.”
Taxation: “If you reduce the purchasing power of the people, we can further slow down the economy. Let us widen the tax net. Those who are not paying now, even if they are relatives of Bola Tinubu, let the net be bigger and we take in more taxes. That is what we must do in the country instead of another layer of taxes for now.”
Originality and coherence
The 80-page document is serialised into 18 chapters and each focused on thematic governance areas, with the candidate summarising in the foreword his aspiration for Nigeria, using his performance as the governor of Lagos State as the foundation of his proposed presidency.
While the content is largely original, the title ‘Renewed Hope, 2023’ is similar to Chief M.K.O Abiola’s ‘Hope, 1993’, campaign documents. Whether there is an ideological correlation between the candidate’s worldview and Abiola’s or just plain similarity in phrasing remains to be seen.
The policy document is coherent and well laid out, however it is filled with aspirational statements, with very limited quantitative commitments against which performance can be measured.
Thematic focus and context
NATIONAL SECURITY
Background: Since the return to democratic governance in 1999, Nigeria has witnessed the disturbing rise in the activities of violent non-state actors and their domination of national and sub-national security agendas. It is therefore not surprising that Nigeria has performed poorly in almost all indicators benchmarking public safety and security.
On the 2021 safety and security sub-index of the Global Prosperity Index, Nigeria ranked 143 out of the 167 countries polled (Legatum Institute, 2021). On the World Bank’s political stability and absence of violence component of the Worldwide Governance Indicators, Nigeria scored 4.72 out of the 100 gradable scores (World bank, 2020).
In a decade of measurement, Nigeria witnessed a decline on the Security and Rule of Law component of the Ibrahim Index of African Governance (Mo Ibrahim Foundation, 2020).
Against this backdrop the candidate’s main focus security-wise includes the following:
• Creation of Anti-Terrorist Battalions;
• Upgrade Tactical Communications and logistics;
• Upgrade weapon systems and improve local arms production;
• Improve Salaries and general welfare of security services;
• Provide economic and social assistance to communities impacted by security crisis;
• Development of critical infrastructure protection plan;
• Revitalization of Ranger or Forest Guard force and enhanced protection of rural and border communities;
• Improved management of national database for security purposes: and
• Reform and reposition of the police
ECONOMY, FISCAL AND MONETARY POLICY
Background: Nigeria is a natural resource dependent country, and manufactured goods make up only about 6% of all exports from Nigeria . National Income comes primarily from Crude Oil, Natural Gas and Agriculture . Nigeria’s population growth has remained constant at 2.5% , GDP increased by 3.6% in 202113, while inflation and interest rates remain in double digits – reported at 20.5% and 15.50 respectively14. Import costs are rising due to the depreciating value of the naira against major world currencies. Income has worsened and is creating a national security challenge. Business environment is also challenging and limits individual ability for acquiring productive skills and for accessing redit/capital for turning ideas into thriving businesses.
The candidate’s plan to turn around the economy includes:
• Review of fiscal allocation formula to allow states greater flexibility to foster grassroots economic development;
• 10% GDP growth based on 2021 World Bank Data;
• Promotion of rapid industrialization;
• Reduce Youth unemployment by half in 4 years;
• Reform of the current oil-based dollar denominated budgetary methodology;
• Using investment in national infrastructure modernization to provide employments to millions of Nigerians and drive economic growth;
• Utilisation of tax credits, rebates and other targeted fiscal measures to incentivize global brands to Nigeria;
• Creation of a progressive tax regime, while plugging harmful loopholes, enhance the efficiency of collection and give the people a greater sense of responsibility in relation to their taxes;
• Civil service reform and reduction of the cost of governance;
• Significant expansion of government revenue by creating the enabling environment to expand the private sector initiatives;
• Limiting foreign currency denominated debts to essential expenditures that cannot be adequately addressed by either naira denominated expenditures or debt obligations;
• Creation of geopolitical based industrial hubs- Northwest and Northeast- textiles; South East and South-South – dry port and labour intensive manufacturing; South West- highest quality glass items; North Central- mineral explorations.
CRITICAL ECONOMIC LEVERS (HOUSING, AGRICULTURE, OIL AND GAS, DIGITAL ECONOMY, SPORTS & INFRASTRUCTURE)
Background: Energy consumption in Nigeria is still far below sub-Saharan Africa average at around 140kWh per capita (almost three times lower than the average for Sub-Saharan Africa). Only 62% of the population have access to electricity and fewer still (24%) have access to non-solid fuels15. The country suffers from a huge infrastructural deficit, as total infrastructure stock represents only 35% of the GDP, which is significantly below the 70% average for an emerging economy. Nigeria’s required financing for infrastructure is estimated at $3 trillion over the next 30 years.16
The candidate’s focus in this area includes:
• Review and Revision of Land Use Act;
• Establishment of a new social housing policy;
• Deliver 4 million housing units per year;
• Generate, transmit and distribute sufficient, affordable electricity to give our people
the requisite power to enlighten their lives, their homes, and their very dreams;
• Eliminate estimated billing method;
• Regulatory reform to allow private sector, local and state government actors to electrify rural communities;
• Review of the Electric Power Sector Reform Act 2005;
• Increase crude oil production to 2.6mmbpd by 2027 and 4mbpd by 2030;
• Increase indigenous share of crude oil production to over 1mbps by 2027;
• Achieve full deregulation of midstream gas prices within 6 months, increase gas
production by 20% and complete critical gas infrastructure projects by 2027;
• Ending fuel subsidy regime;
• Review of the organisation, structure and operations of the Nigerian Railway Corporation;
• Rehabilitation and expansion of existing federal roads and expressway;
• prioritisation and completion of critical ongoing national railway projects;
• Increase cultivation percentage of arable land in Nigerian from 35% to 65%;
• Support initiative to construct fresh produce storage facilities in major marketplaces
of major cities and towns to minimise waste and better preserve perishable food items;
• Introduction of commodity boards to establish minimum prices for strategic crops such as cashew, cocoa, sesame, soya, cassava, yam, rubber, okra, palm kernels, groundnut and okra;
• Launch the Irrigate Nigeria Project, which will be based on a PPP approach to the construction of small-scale irrigation and water catchment systems.
HUMAN CAPITAL DEVELOPMENT (EDUCATION, HEALTH AND SOCIAL PROTECTION)
Background: Nigeria’s health indicators are some of the worst in Africa, with a life expectancy at birth of 55 years, making it the third worst on the continent.17 Nigeria has the highest number of out-of-school children in Sub-Saharan Africa, a figure estimated at between 10.2million18 and 20 million.19 By government records, 40.1% of Nigerians are classified as poor. Unemployment Rate is 33%, with youth employment substantially higher at 53.4% (15-24 years) and 37.2% (25-34 years). These atrocious indexes are compounded by a 2.5% annual population growth rate, with increasing demand on public service and infrastructure, which in turn slows economic growth and reduces government’s ability to invest in public service and infrastructure.
The candidate’s focus in this area includes:
• Management and policy reforms of educational system;
• Institute a pilot student loan regime;
• Establish a special education fund that will be responsible for funding university education through selling of bonds;
• Establish a task force headed by a special czar will be created to address the problem of out of school children;
• Implementation of a mandatory health insurance scheme to cover at least 40% of the population within two years;
• support the allocation of about 1% of pooled health insurance funds to health research;
• Creation of one million new jobs in the ICT sector within its first 24 months in office;
• Deliver broadband services to 90% of the population by 2025;
• Establishment of a Media City as a Special Economic Zone to attract foreign investment and incentivise both local and international participation in the initiative;
• Build a modern Media City modelled on the Dubai Media City;
• Establishment of an Athletes’ Welfare Fund;
• Engage 2 million volunteers Entrepreneurs and professionals on intergenerational, business mentoring and co-operation;
• To reduce youth unemployment by half within four years;
• Reserve at least three cabinet positions for persons under the age of 40 and 6 more positions for person under the age of 50.
Practicability and Clarity
ECONOMY summary:
The candidate’s economic plan is built on tripod- reforms of the structural model of the Nigerian economy, incentivisation of the private sector and active engagement with sub-national components and investment in infrastructural development to spur economic growth. The candidate’s plan links economic growth with the functioning of other sectors of national life, essentially conceiving economic growth as the outcome of multiple functioning processes and systems. The plan reiterates some of the challenges that ail the economy and the insufficiency of oil receipts alone to drive Nigeria out of current fiscal crisis. The plan also takes positive cognisance of the need to arrest youth unemployment and also expand industrial capacity of urban centres, thereby providing the opportunity for job creation.
On monetary policy, the document lays out the challenges of a dysfunctional exchange rate but does not commit to unifying the exchange rate. It plans to “…work with the Central Bank and the financial sector to carefully review and better optimise the exchange rate regime.”
The document also provides its explanation on the inflation rate currently at 22% YoY while explaining that it does not intend to curtail public spending in order not to suppress demand.There is a need for more clarity on how it intends to ramp up production. While attention was copiously paid to import substitution and support for tax rebates for domestic manufacturers, there was no position of rapidly expanding exports with non-oil exports at $3.45bn as at 2021. Elements of limiting foreign debts are also welcome but the crowding effect of the private sector in context of the proposed N20tn bond the CBN is not well defended in the document.
There’s a commendable position of raising revenue as the document asserts that “A Tinubu government shall deploy the same skills and expertise used in Lagos State to generate record levels of internally generated revenue, create wealth and attract investment.” It is important to provide more specificity but acknowledging raising Nigeria’s tax profile and reforming corporate taxation is commendable. However, no target was stated as the current tax-to-GDP of 6% remains incredibly low and the document doesn’t offer a direction on quantification. The document also states that “we will streamline the amount that the government spends on itself. A cap will be placed on fiscal expenditures for the construction of government buildings and on the salaries and related compensation packages of elected officials and senior personnel in the executive branch of the Federal Government… However, we will continue the process of weeding out ghost workers, as well as ghost projects and expenditures from the system.” This is a significant promise considering how messy Nigeria’s budget has been in recent years with dubious insertions and the rising overhead costs. However, there was no mention of the monster in the room – Nigeria’s rising debt servicing costs – which has reached 86% of public revenues. There’s no mention of what the candidates aim to do about it.
Additionally, the policy also builds on the successes of the current government and enlarges the role of private investment and innovation in economic growth. However, certain targets are unrealistic and not grounded such as a visualised projection that Nigeria is expected to grow at 10% annually and reallocation of revenue formula without countenancing the worsening financial condition of the Federal Government.
The candidate’s economic plan is high on economic buzzwords and ambitious claims, but disappointingly low in quantifiable commitments against which progress can be measured. The ludicrous element of the plan is a position that seeks to “Much like the European Union has done, we too must be realistic and legislatively suspend the limits on government spending during this protracted moment”. This is a dangerous position as recent outsized intervention by the CBN to prove this theory through “Ways and Means” has led to a significant rise in inflation and the weakening of the currency.
To clarify this, to suspend the nexus between revenue and expenditure is to destroy macroeconomic fundamentals that have dire consequences in the near term. Nigeria’s fiscal spending must be rooted in efficiency, the rapid embrace of productivity and restructuring the revenue-collecting agencies to expand the tax bracket.
Additionally, the policy does not include the financial requirements of the ambitious plans detailed in the policy document. Promises were made for the development of dams, a bold national highway system, “Green Great Wall of the North” but there were no clear specific targets that can easily be measured. How many kilometres of roads? What road projects would be of priority to unlock the prosperity that the candidates seek?
Inside the Obi policy document
The candidate’s policy document titled – ‘IT’S POSSIBLE – OUR PACT WITH NIGERIANS’- details seven areas of priorities: Security, industrialization, institutional reforms, technological innovation and digital economy, infrastructure, human capital development and diplomacy.
Originality and Coherence
The candidate’s 72 pages policy document is chaptered into eight thematic sections, with the final section focusing on the biographies of the candidate and his running mate. The title of the policy document – It’s Possible – is similar to Mallam Nuhu Ribadu’s 2011 presidential election campaign slogan – It is possible. The document is largely original, with heavy usage of international-development-related lingo and platitudes. While there is some clumsiness and incoherence in some sections (for example, Article III, page 13), the document lucidly discusses the problem of governance in Nigeria and makes bold commitments to restructure Nigeria’s federalism. On the other hand, for a candidate framed as an alternative to the current political establishment, the manifesto’s overall non-quantitative commitment to the provision of public goods and services, non-distinction from existing policy directions in many parts, and absence of appropriate clarity pose questions on capability and overall preparedness.
Thematic focus and context
SECURITY, NATIONAL COHESION AND INCLUSIVE GOVERNANCE
Manifesto Highlights:
• Increase the personnel of our armed forces, police and other security agencies and optimally equip, train, and fund them to respond adequately to security threats;
• Deploy state-of-the-art military technology to fight terrorists, bandits, insurgents and kidnappers;
• Decentralise and professional management of security institutions and the use of grant-in-aid to encourage efficient criminal justice administration at sub national levels, namely, state, local government and community security administration;
• Police reform to introduce a three-level policing system – local, state, and federal – and introduction of frameworks to prevent abuse;
• Recreate community relations with security agencies in order to increase public trust and build human intelligence to restore law and order in the communities;
• Engage, support, and partner, with national and sub-national institutions and governments and network them into an integrated and reinforced;
• Swift, firm and fair prosecution of criminals, bandits and terrorists to end impunity;
• Reforming the security sector, with particular emphasis on re-focusing the military on external threats and border protection, and the police on internal security threats and law enforcement;
• Direct executive action and push for legislative mandate aimed at formulating a policy on Common Regimentation Emolument Structure Table (CREST) that will harmonise the wages of the federal public servants, so that public servants (whether elected or appointed) are not ranked or earn higher than career civil servants and the military such as those in the judiciary, academia, para-military, and federal statutory agencies;
• Resolve the national minimum wage problem by doing away with the extant salary structure and introducing an hourly productivity-based national minimum rate, by which public and private sector employers should pay employees based on their actual productivity;
• Make deliberate efforts to re-create a sense of patriotism, shared ownership, and responsibilities in matters of nation-building, integration, and cohesion
ECONOMY, FISCAL AND
MONETARY POLICY
Manifesto Highlights:
• Shift emphasis from consumption to production by running a production centred economy that is driven by an agrarian revolution and export oriented industrialization;
• optimise all the comparative advantages of 36 states and the FCT, across all the agricultural value chains through adequate and targeted investments, policies, and programs;
• create mandatory national certification for blue-collar artisans; strengthen some of the existing tertiary schools of science and engineering to train the next generation of experts in the Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) field;
• Shift emphasis from consumption to production by running a production-centred economy that is driven by an agrarian revolution and export-oriented industrialization;
• Application of entrepreneurial governance to dismantle the impediments to free trade and ease of doing business;
• Implementation of radical economic policies that will drastically reduce national debt-servicing ratio and debt to revenue ratio;
• Establishment of a Green Army tasked with identifying all opportunities to tap into the 3 trillion dollars international climate finance to engineer economic growth and employment for millions of our youths and transition our country to the green epoch;
• Incentivising and investing in agro-cluster and industrial cluster development across our geo-resource zones to take advantage of agglomeration and scale effects; and
• Radical reforms of entire national transport system including logistics and distribution, ports, customs, and other agencies connected to international trade
Aggressive prioritisation of the mechanisation of the huge endowment of arable land across our nation, particularly in our Northern region, to make agriculture the new oil of a prosperous Nigerian economy;
• Scaling up the development of manufacturing and processing technological capabilities across the primary products value chains where we enjoy comparative advantage;
• Prioritise the exploration of the economic opportunities available through oceanic and marine resources around our country.
RESTRUCTURING
Manifesto Highlights:
• Review of the 68 items on the exclusive list of the Federal government and moving agreed items to the concurrent list, to ensure effective public action for growth and sustainable livelihood;
• Immediate implementation of the Oronsaye Report which recommended the consolidation of agencies of government;
• Establishment of the Office of Regulatory Review in the Executive Office of the President to review and harmonise proposed regulations to ensure they pass cost-benefit analysis, and enhance economic efficiency and social justice before they are enacted;
• Drive the inclusion of our customary laws (norms and values – with respect to their compatibility with our constitution) in the contents of our formal law and in the administration of justice;
• Establishment of the Office of Special Counsel to investigate and prosecute every executive abuse of power and corrupt public practices that do not fall under the prosecutorial power of existing agencies or are bureaucratically concealed;
• Restoration of fiscal viability by discontinuing unaffordable subsidies which have left a black hole in the government’s finances;
• Transparent liberalisation of the foreign exchange market and the dismantling of the opaque multiple exchange rate regime which effectively subsidises a few privileged persons, whilst depriving government of badly needed revenues;
• Redesign of Nigeria’s fiscal architecture such that revenue mobilisation and allocation will be bottom-up like most federations across the world, and the federal government will now rely on revenues from taxes collected by states to drive the right incentive for efficiency and optimal allocation of resources;
• Expansion of Nigeria’s tax net and base by authorising the Joint Tax Board (FIRS and States’ IRS) to identify all payable taxes and fees by companies and individual and consolidation all tax databases into one centralised system.
INDUSTRIALIZATION
Manifesto Highlights:
• Leapfrog Nigeria into the 4th Industrial Revolution (4IR), through the application of scientific and technological innovations to create a digital economy;
• Prioritisation of a structured approach to developing the digital skills of our young population to give them the competitive advantage to receive offshore jobs in the new gig economy;
• Reduce importation of refined petroleum products and eliminating the petrol subsidy regime through incentivization of the mid-stream segment of the petroleum sector by facilitating gas processing plants and privately-owned small and medium scale boutique refineries;
• Encouraging corporate entities and industries that make discernible efforts to transit to clean and alternative energy, not only for local consumption but also for export;
• Review and enforcement of the mandatory National Strategic Reserve of premium motor spirit (PMS), diesel (AGO), aviation fuel, and cooking gas to reduce our national vulnerability to sudden disruptions to the supply of these fuels;
• Prioritisation of the development of MSMEs through a boutique of incentives which include new structures, new capital access, new legislation to support small business growth and strategic centres of excellence;
• Expansion of Nigerian content initiative with an emphasis on the promotion of
• made-in-Nigeria goods and services as a pillar of our administration;
• Our government will pursue a combination of state-led and public-private initiatives to drive the penetration of broadband infrastructure and information superhighway necessary to empower smart industrialization.
INFRASTRUCTURE
Manifesto Highlights:
• Complete the $2.3b Nigeria-Siemens network improvement deal (technical upgrade and strengthening) to achieve 7,000MW stable capacity by 2023, 11,000 megawatts by 2024, and 25,000 megawatts by 2025;
• Launch a solar power revolution across Nigeria, particularly Northern Nigeria, with a view of ensuring that all cities and industrial parks in Northern Nigeria have uninterrupted power by the end of 2024;
• By urgently re-engaging the 14 Independent Power Producers (IPPs), who had in 2016, initialled PPAs worth $2.5 billion to build a total 1,125 megawatts of installed solar capacity for delivery to the national grid;
• Increase the capacity of some of the 14 plants to achieve 5,000MW generation by expanding at least 10 of the projects;
• Invite experienced local and international developers to sign new PPAs for 8,000MW of solar and wind plants, including offshore wind farms in the Lagos, Warri, and Port-Harcourt coastal areas with a mandatory latest commercial operation date of December 2025;
• Within 3 years, each of the southern states should develop and construct embedded power plants of capacities ranging from 5 MW to 30MW up to a total of 300 MW per state from locally-sourced gas in and around the states;
• Complete and commission the Mambilla HEP project, which is planned to deliver 3,050MW; the Kashimbila Dam project, planned to deliver 40MW; and the 40MW Dadin Kowa HEP plant;
• Develop 100,000 mini-grids across the country by end 2024 which will provide reliable power supply for up to 750,000 rural SMEs;
• Support the private sector to deploy 15 million solar standalone systems for residential and SMEs use by end of 2025;
• Release financing of new power generation to 25 GW by 2030, including an additional 5,000 MW of new power generation by the end of 2024;
• Creation of the Highway Trust Fund Account. This account will be funded jointly by the Federal Government, states, and the private sector on a ratio to be agreed upon, with government participation limited to those areas where there is a manifest need for government intervention.
HUMAN CAPITAL DEVELOPMENT
Manifesto Highlights:
• Address the gaps in the legislation guiding the funding access modalities to Universal Basic Education Commission (UBEC) and the Tertiary Education Trust Fund (TETFund);
• The Ministry of Education will work out a Public-Private model that involves private corporations assuming funding and managerial responsibilities in a specially restructured taxation plan. This design will see some private corporations pay their taxes in the form of taking management of a school while the Ministry continues to retain ownership, set the national curriculum and manage other oversight functions;
• Provide health insurance cover to 133 million poorest Nigerians including pregnant women, children, the aged and the disabled;
• Strive to honour Nigeria’s commitment to the 2001 African Union Abuja Declaration on, which set the target of allocating at least 15% of annual budgets to the improvement of the health sector in African countries;
• Work with state governments to introduce state leagues in key sports such as football and basketball to enhance the growth and professionalisation of grassroots sports;
• Support the creative industries (fashion, music, arts, film, entertainment) to become significant areas of our comparative advantage and also sources of job creation for our youths and tourism;
• Candidate’s approach to poverty alleviation is to engineer massive economic growth that will create jobs, grow incomes, build capacities and capabilities across the breadth of the socioeconomic divide;
• Create financing incentives to unlock private capital provision of affordable social housing for Nigerian workers and people in proximity to their businesses and workplaces.
Practicability and Clarity
SECURITY, NATIONAL COHESION AND INCLUSIVE GOVERNANCE
Summary: The policy documents lumps security, national cohesion, and inclusive governance together as a theme, thereby combining related policy subjects with related strategic solutions into the same basket. However, having security reform and the introduction of an hourly productivity-based national minimum rate in this section is clumsy and distracting. The manifesto grimly contextualises the threats that insecurity, as driven by insurgency, banditry, terrorism, and other organised transnational crimes, among others, poses to Nigeria’s social and economic development.
The candidate also highlights his efforts in collaborating with and resourcing the police during his tenure as governor of Anambra State as evidence of his intention in managing security challenges. The manifesto does not show enough details that beyond the need to increase personnel and fund arms and ammunition, there need to invest in community building, trust, transitional justice and soft elements in arresting the spate of insurgency. While there are specific provisions in ensuring a more united country in the manifesto, such endeavours are better localised than the appointment of a few persons into positions. The manifesto did not properly define the soft elements required to counter-insurgency.
In terms of structure, it would have been more effective to merge security with the full detailing of the necessary reform of the justice system as both elements are related.
The inclusion of unified payment for all government personnel, codifying minimum wage and codifying consolidated Occupational Health and Safety Act would have been better stated under the labour and fiscal components of the manifesto. However, there is still a need for more details and quantifiable targets, especially in the security sector.
Is there a spending target for the security sector? Is there going to be more investment in building community trust at local levels? How will the state policing system be addressed under a constitutional framework with enough provisions to check abuse? Security-wise, the document’s most significant and definite policy commitment is the reform of police structure in Nigeria to allow states and local governments to establish and control their respective policing outfits as one of the ways to address Nigeria’s current security crisis.
Via: VANGUARD
