This year’s rainy season and other weather conditions are likely to cause major disruptions in the country which will affect citizens’ health and infrastructure in key sectors.

According to a technical committee of experts set up by the Federal Government, this is due to the severity of the weather and lack of preparedness by relevant agencies.

Roads, bridges and other key infrastructure as well as communities may be washed away, while disease epidemics may break out in many communities.

The aviation sector is not left out as airplanes may skid off runways and cause major catastrophes.

The warning is contained in a document prepared and made available to Saturday PUNCH by the panel, which is chaired by the National Emergency Management Agency.

It also warned that severe flooding would likely wash away farms and lead to the destruction of livestock, thus causing severe hunger in the land. In addition, it predicted that severe weather might worsen malaria, cholera and other water-borne diseases, and escalate depression among Nigerians.

The warning was given in the 2023 climate-related disaster preparedness and mitigation strategies. The document indicated that the agency developed the early warning messages in collaboration with several stakeholders, including representatives of about 22 ministries, departments and agencies.

The document showed that the 22-member technical committee signed the ‘Analysis of 2023 seasonal climate prediction’.

The agencies include NEMA, the Nigeria Hydrological Service Agency, Nigeria Meteorological Agency, National Space Research and Development Agency, National Inland Waterways Authority, Office of the Surveyor-General of the Federation and the National Orientation Agency.

The list also includes the Federal Ministry of Health, Federal Ministry of Environment, Federal Ministry of Education, Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, Federal Ministry of Transportation and National Oil Spill Detection and Response Agency.

Others are the Nigeria Security and Civil Defence Corps, Nigeria Integrated Water Resources Management, River Basin Development Authority, Jiga Dam, Nigerian Red Cross Society, Federal Fire Service, Centre for Disaster Risk Management, University of Nigeria, Nsukka; Federal Capital Territory Emergency Management Agency; Erin Dam, Osun State, and the Upper Niger River Basin Development Authority, Minna, Niger State.

According to the document, following the public presentation of the 2023 Seasonal Climate Prediction by NiMet on January 24 and the Annual Flood Outlook by the NIHSA on February 17, 2023, NEMA convened a technical meeting of experts from relevant stakeholder-organisations who deliberated for two days and came up with the strategy as an early warning document based on thematic sectors.

“The strategy is to aid responsible organisations carry out preparedness and mitigation actions to safeguard lives, livelihoods, properties and the environment against hazards related to climate variability within Nigeria in 2023,” it stated.

In the agricultural sector, the panel said the onset of the planting season was likely to range from early to normal in most parts of the country, while later than normal onset dates were expected over parts of the northern states.

The document stated, “Below normal rainfall is predicted over some places in the extreme North. This will result in water stress. Day time temperature is likely to be above normal all over the country. This will have an adverse impact on domestic animals leading to losses. High pests and diseases will also lead to losses of agricultural production.

“High rainfall, relative humidity, winds, temperature and sunshine affect aquaculture. All stakeholders, including development partners and NGOs, should embark on awareness and sensitisation for climate smart agriculture.”

It also advised NEMA and state emergency management agencies and development partners to embark on early production of flood vulnerability mapping between January and March, while the Nigerian Incentive-Based Risk sharing system for Agricultural Lending and Bank of Agriculture should make available insurance covers and credit facilities from January to December.

It added that the FMARD should embark on early construction of earthen ponds before the onset of rainfall, with the period of action set for between January and May, while the ADP should sensitise farmers to the frequent and systematic change or pond water, poultry pen ventilation and birds’ hydration all year round.

In the water resources sector, the experts predicted an early start of rain from March in the coastal areas to July in the hinterland and this might result in flash floods due to some social/environmental factors.

The document stated, “Rainfall amount is predicted to be average to above average in most parts of the country. This also may result in over-flooding and improper termination of drainage systems, cause damages to critical infrastructure and leave communities inaccessible.

“Damages of water infrastructure, reduction in water quality and nutrient, cause erosion and flooding.”

It advised relevant agencies to engage in efficient sensitisation of communities around the coastal areas; de-silting of major rivers and dams, river training and establishment of standards for drainage system termination.

According to the report, weather parameters and atmospheric conditions will induce pathogens and disease vectors to grow, multiply and spread faster. This will encourage transmission of malaria and cholera, heat stress, heat cramps exhaustion, heatstroke and hyperthermia.

High air temperature and relative humidity will directly affect personal comfort of humans. This may increase drowning, injury, malnutrition, depression and mental disorders, the report added.

“Flooding will affect health sectors, resulting in pollution, spread of water-borne diseases, displacement of people and limited access to healthcare,” it stated.

The prediction for the transport sector is grimmer as the document states that the interplay of weather elements (rainfall, dust haze, fog and mist, extreme temperature, etc) will affect most means of transportation.

The report stated, “The prospect of normal to above normal rainfall amounts and high temperatures will affect road transport. Heavy rains may result in flooding, cause damages to roads and bridges, other critical infrastructure and leave communities inaccessible. Also, travel time may be longer.

“High temperatures will affect motor vehicle tyres during hot seasons.

“The projected rainfall pattern implies heavy rains, convective rains with associated strong winds, aquaplaning and high temperatures. These will increase the prospects of wind shear and air turbulence resulting in disruptions, skidding of planes off the runways, flight delays and flight cancellations.

“Weather elements will result in rail track buckling, flooding and washout as well as cooling in train stations.

“There may be an increase in siltation and contamination of waterways. Silt and debris may impede smooth navigation by boats and other vessels.”

The team of experts urged the federal and state fire services, NEMA, Federal Road Safety Corps, NSCDC, Federal Ministry of Health, Nigerian Red Cross and SEMAS to preposition ambulances along identified flash points, while the Federal Roads Maintenance Agency, Federal Ministry of Works and Housing, and other stakeholders should continuously maintain road networks and infrastructure, and in the long run re-construct and elevate flooded roads.

It added, “The Federal Ministry of Transportation, state governments, NIWA and NPA should embark on early dredging and maintenance of coastal and inland waterways navigations.

“The Federal Ministry of Water Resources, Federal Ministry of Transportation and NIWA should ensure they monitor discharge and regulations of dams and create detention dams.”

For the power generation and distribution sector, the report said the predicted normal rainfall amounts over most parts of the country would sustain hydro-power generation, which would present the opportunity to possibly meet up with high demands for power during the hot season for cooling systems.

It added that the Federal Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation, Federal Ministry of Power, Rural Electrification Agency and Standards Organisation of Nigeria should canvas alternative power generation sources to complement the hydropower sources in order to cope with the high demand for power through continuous investment in renewable energy systems.

It stated, “The FMoP, NERC, TCN, Discos and Gencos should provide higher capacity distribution substations to compensate for eventual breakdown of existing transformers due to high load and demand, especially in high density areas.

“The agencies should direct electricity distribution companies to ensure that cables, electric poles and other installations used in transmitting power to users are properly installed so as to withstand strong winds, heavy rains and other severe weather phenomena.

“The FMOW, federal and state town planning authorities, Nigerian Institute of Town Planners, Nigerian Society of Engineers and the Council for the Regulation of Engineering in Nigeria should ensure that offices, buildings and households are well ventilated to allow effective and efficient or circulation during the hot seasons, thereby reducing demand for power for air-conditioning.

“The NIWA, FMARD, FMWR, river basin authorities and state governments should regularly monitor and de-silt rivers and hydropower dams to maximise water storage, prevent dam collapse and minimise risk of water shortage.”

In the telecommunication sector, it stated that electromagnetic waves propagation would be affected by weather conditions and this would affect signal quality and cause deterioration as well as distortion of cell phone reception.

“Masts and antennae are susceptible to storms; they may collapse, causing serious economic losses,” it added.

While calling for the relocation of communities perennially affected by foods to safer places, the panel said there was a need to improve or strengthen diplomatic relations through the Federal Ministry of Foreign Affairs with neighbouring countries like Niger, Chad and Cameroon with respect to release of water from their dams.

Health experts comment

A professor of Public Health at the University of Ilorin and former National Chairman, Association of Public Health Physicians of Nigeria, Tanimola Akande, said all the three tiers of government must play their roles to mitigate the consequences of extreme weather conditions.

He said, “The government of Nigeria is part of the global agreement on mitigating the challenges of climate change. So, the government needs to do the needful by creating awareness and putting in place various measures against the consequences. The various organs of the government should also improve on their interventions.

“The government has said we have ecological funds, so they should release the funds to do the needful.”

A public health physician, Dr Laz Ude Eze, advised that proactive steps should be taken to avoid the effects of flooding.

He said, “When predictions regarding climate change or flooding are made, it is expected that they should be taken seriously and those concerned should take proactive steps to make sure that nobody is caught unawares. There has to be massive sensitisation, especially in communities that will be affected.

“The state and local governments must ensure that there are measures to monitor events and also have a plan to relocate people. We don’t need to start reading that people are dying before people will start doing things for the uptick and start carrying food items.

“Last year was quite bad, some states are still recovering. It will be disappointing for any state to wait and watch for a repeat of what happened last year.”

Anambra warns residents

Meanwhile, the Anambra State Government has alerted residents to be prepared for heavy rainfall and imminent flooding this year.

The warning was contained in a statement by the Commissioner for Information, Paul Nwosu, on Friday.

Nwosu, while enumerating measures to mitigate the effect of the looming flooding, listed high risk communities to include Ogbaru, Ayamelum, Anambra East, Anambra West, Onitsha North, Onitsha South, Awka North, Idemili South, Ekwusigo and Ihiala local government areas.

Anambra was among the states that battled massive flooding in 2022 with over 300 communities in six local government areas submerged for several weeks, while residents of the affected areas were relocated to various internally displaced persons’ camps across the state.

Nwosu stated, “The 2023 seasonal rainfall prediction and annual flood outlook by Nigerian Meteorological Agency and Nigerian Hydrological Service Agency has shown that there will be high rainfall across the country and flood this year.

“The high flood risk areas in Anambra State that could be flood hit include, Ogbaru, Ayamelum, Anambra East, Anambra west, Onitsha North, Onitsha South, Awka North, Idemili South, Ekwusigo and Ihiala LGAs.

“The State Emergency Management Agency has issued the following flood mitigation measures: Make concrete plans for timely harvesting and evacuation of your farm produce and livestock to avoid losses. Do not wait until the flood comes to harvest.

“Make concrete plans to secure your household properties and essential belongings as much as possible before the flood actually sets in.

“Plan ahead to get your family as well as the aged, the sick, pregnant women, infants and children evacuated well on time to safety nets (IDP camps provided by the ANSG) to avoid preventable loss of lives. Timely evacuation is key.

“De-silting of water channels should be done continuously as huge amounts of silt is deposited in water channels after rainfall; people should stop constructing in water plains and across water channels.

“Clear gutters and drainages; do not dispose of your thrash in gutters or drainage; move to a higher ground before the flood becomes neck deep. If cut off from a designated point, climb and stay on a tree or high platform.

“Keep a family disaster kit. A disaster kit is an assemblage of basic essentials (food, water, medication, torch lights, blankets, etc.) that will last a family a few days in the event of a flood.”

Nwosu warned residents to avoid wading or swimming in flood water due to submerged logs, stones and the presence of dangerous reptiles.

Ogun alerts residents

Similarly, the Ogun State Government alerted residents of Akute, Isheri, Mowe, Ibafo, Riverside Estate and other border communities with Lagos State to relocate to avoid disaster as a result of another round of flooding.

The Commissioner for Environment, Ola Oresanya, raised the alarm at a press conference in Abeokuta on Wednesday.

Oresanya said the warning became imperative following the prediction of the Nigerian Meteorological Agency on the 2023 flood alert in the state.

He said the listed areas would witness coastal flooding due to the tidal lock of the Ogun River by the Lagos lagoon from a natural rise in sea level coupled with the possible release of excessive water from the Oyan Dam.

Oresanya advised residents to brace for flash floods as the state was expecting 3,646mm of rainfall between April and November.

He recalled that the country recorded the worst-ever flood incidents in 2022, which killed over 600 people and displaced about 2.4 million persons.

The state also warned residents of 23 other communities prone to flood to urgently take precautions to alleviate the impact.

He said, “Residents are advised to desist from the temptation of building on run-off routes and placement of temporary structures and containers or extension of business premises on top of drains in markets and public places.

“In preparation for the inevitable impact of the natural pattern of rainfall predicted for the year 2023, residents in the following areas: Onikoko, Sokori and Arakanga areas in Abeokuta; Owa and Yemule riverbanks in Ijebu-Ode; Eruwuru in Sagamu; Ebute

Kimobi in Ijebu East; Isaka Owode in Ado-Odo Ota; Owode, Igijo, Ilaro and Ijoko should expect flash floods due to heavy rainfall within short periods.

“The second season will have a prolonged impact in wetlands such as Alagbole, Akute, Isheri, Warewa, Oke-Afa, Mowe, Ibafo, Kara, Onihale, Ebute Kimobi and Riverside Estate.

“These areas will witness coastal flooding due to tidal lock of the Ogun River by the Lagos lagoon from natural rise in sea-level coupled with possible release of excessive water from the Oyan Dam. Residents of these areas should be prepared to relocate temporarily from these areas during the second season of rainfall if required.

“Furthermore, farmers in the state are advised to complete the harvest in the month of August and avoid farming and livestock rearing along the flood plains to prevent the adverse impact of intense flooding of the second season of rainfalls.

“In realisation of the inter boundary impact of flooding, we wish to reassure residents of the state that we have effective collaboration with the management of the Ogun-Osun River Basin Development Authority and the neighbouring states of Lagos and Oyo, especially as it relates to the release of water from the Oyan Dam.”

Farmers, environmentalists speak

The President, All Farmers Association of Nigeria, Kabir Ibrahim, said, “Before the rain, you need to evacuate all the drainages and clean them up for smooth passage of water, because when the drainage is blocked, water will flood everywhere. We have been sensitising farmers and residents to ensure adequate cleaning of the drainages.

“Again, what farmers can do is to avoid flood-prone areas. Where you know flooding will take place, do not plant there.

“The issue of flooding is not even as adverse as in other countries, but the governments are only giving good sensitisation and palliatives to the affected people. However, we should be mindful of the fact that the palliatives cannot even solve the problem, because nobody can be given exactly what they need for a whole year. So, it is a very difficult situation. The thing is to pray for it not to happen, but when it happens, then it becomes a problem and the blame game will not solve it.”

A professor of Geography and Regional Planning, Ambrose Alli University, Ekpoma, Gbakeji Julius, said, “What are those things that make the flooding issue worrisome? Most of the drainages and natural waterways are blocked; when houses and other structures are built on natural waterways, it causes a lot of flooding. The government should discourage the building of structures that can injure the flow of water.

“The government needs to be extremely proactive in sensitising the populace to the need to be very conscious by way of ensuring that the environment is set free of things that can block drainages and natural waterways.”

Similarly, a professor of Geography and Environmental Management at the Ambrose Alli University, Ekpoma, Magnus Ojeifo, explained that the only ways to minimise the effects of the predicted disaster was for the government to be highly prepared before the commencement of the downpour.

He said as part of the high level government preparation, dredging of major rivers should take place for seamless flow of rain water.

The don also identified the need for members of the public to be properly sensitised about the situation as persuasion of the people residing in flood prone environments would mitigate the effects of the disaster on human lives and properties

On his part, a professor of Climatology at the Federal University of Technology, Yola, Zemba Audu, urged the government to take pre-emptive and adaptive measures to lessen the effects in flood-prone areas by relocating residents to other places for adequate safety.

“It can also apply funds to some extent, because at the end of the day, it will be looked upon by the government to do something. It can also make plans towards it and there should be some kinds of relief in terms of health and foodstuffs among others for the people. Basically, these are some of the things that the government can do before the flood happens,” he stated.

Meanwhile, NEMA has called for robust synergy among stakeholders to effectively mitigate and tackle disasters and emergencies in states within the South-East.

The acting Zonal Coordinator of NEMA, South-East, Mrs Ngozi Echeazu, made the call in an address at an expanded stakeholders’ meeting in Enugu on Friday.

Echeazu urged the stakeholders to keep working together for seamless disaster management in the entire South-East, especially in Enugu State.

She pointed out that NEMA had moved from a reactionary to proactive disaster and emergency management agency.

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