The wait is nearly over! The Cheltenham roar is just days away, all the talking is coming to a close and it’s nearly time for action.
The curtain-raiser is a race I have some great memories in over the years and you can’t beat kicking off the week with a winner.
My quick picks for the Supreme Novice
Cheltenham 1.30 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle – Key stats and trends
Age
- 11 of the last 12 winners were aged 5 or 6
- 3 of the last 5 winners were aged 6
Price
- 11 of the last 12 winners were in the top 3 in the betting
- 2 of the last 4 winners were favourite or joint-favourite
- Only 1 double-figure winners in the last 12 renewals
Form
- 9 of the last 10 previously contested a Graded race
- 8 of the last 10 won last time out
- 8 of the last 10 ran within the last 66 days
- 7 of the last 10 won at least 50% of hurdle starts
Rating
- 10 of the last 12 winners were rated 148 or higher
- 5 of the last 7 winners rated 150+
Other pointers
- 8 of the last 12 winners were trained in Ireland
- Willie Mullins has won the Supreme seven times
Supreme Novices Hurdle preview & tips
It is crazy to think some people were questioning the strength of the Mullins battalion prior to the Dublin Racing Festival and now he looks like he has both novice races sewn up. KOPEK DES BORDES is set to be the shortest priced favourite of the Supreme since Douvan back in 2015 and even he was readily available at 2/1 on the day.
I don’t think we’ll be getting anything like that on his favourite this year and just like Douvan he looks hard to oppose. He is yet to taste defeat after making a winning start over hurdles on Boxing Day and then following up by a devastating 13 lengths at the DRF. He learned plenty from that run at Christmas and could come forward again on just his third start over hurdles. I know he doesn’t have any experience at Cheltenham but only four of the last 12 winners have made prior starts at the course, with just two over the same period winning at the home of Jumps racing.
Previous runs at the Festival haven’t been a necessity for this race in recent years, with none of Slade Steel, Marine Nationale or Constitution Hill lining up at Cheltenham before winning the Supreme. He is a short price but with good reason and should get the week off to a flyer.
Each way angle?
Like always the race will cut up as several of the horses have multiple entries. Kawaboomga is definitely interesting but he looks likely to go for the longer race on the Wednesday. Romeo Coolio for Gordon Elliott would certainly be respected if the rain came.
He looked good getting back on track at Leopardstown and is clearly plenty talented. Henry de Bromhead won the race last year with Slade Steel and WORKAHEAD might be the each way value at a double-figure price as he impressed winning by 7 lengths at Leopardstown beating William Munny who is a fair yardstick and could improve again.
My picks:
- KOPEK DES BORDES
- Trainer: Willie Mullins
- Form: 1-11
- Age: 5
- Weight: 11-7
Bet on Kopek Des Bordes to win the Supreme Novice at 4/5 with Betfred
- WORKAHEAD
- Trainer: Henry de Bromhead
- Form: 31
- Age: 7
- Weight: 11-7
Bet on Workahead to win the Supreme Novice at 9/1 with Sky Bet
Last 12 winners of the Supreme
| Year | Horse | Trainer | Jockey |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | Champagne Fever | Willie Mullins | Ruby Walsh |
| 2014 | Vautour | Willie Mullins | Ruby Walsh |
| 2015 | Douvan | Willie Mullins | Ruby Walsh |
| 2016 | Altior | Nicky Henderson | Nico de Boinville |
| 2017 | Labaik | Gordon Elliott | Jack Kennedy |
| 2018 | Summerville Boy | Tom George | Noel Fehily |
| 2019 | Klassical Dream | Willie Mullins | Ruby Walsh |
| 2020 | Shishkin | Nicky Henderson | Nico de Boinville |
| 2021 | Appreciate It | Willie Mullins | Paul Townend |
| 2022 | Constitution Hill | Nicky Henderson | Nico de Boinville |
| 2023 | Marine Nationale | Barry Connell | Michael O’Sullivan |
| 2024 | Slade Steel | Henry de Bromhead | Rachael Blackmore |
More Cheltenham opportunities:
About the author
Joe Norris
I’m Joe Norris, co-founder and Director of GetYourTipsOut (GYTO), which I launched in 2009 to provide daily sports betting tips, with the main focus on horse racing. Over the years, I’ve earned a reputation for offering reliable and profitable tips, which led to being named “Best Sports Betting Tipster” in 2023. Alongside my work at GYTO, I also contribute predictions to platforms like Oddschecker, allowing me to share my insights with a wide community of sports enthusiasts and bettors.
Find Joe on X: @JoeNorrisGYTO
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