In its final days, the Pac-12 produced an upside surprise that will assist those entities involved in the conference’s possible resurrection.
Upsets in the conference tournament a championship Saturday pairing, No. 3 Colorado against No. 4 Oregon, that guarantees at least three teams will advance to the NCAA Tournament. And the total could climb to four.
Top-seeded Arizona and No. 2 Washington State lost in the semifinals Friday night but are locks for the NCAA’s at-large field, while the winner of the title game will receive the Pac-12’s automatic bid.
If Oregon claims the trophy, a fourth NCAA berth should materialize: Colorado’s case for the at-large field solidified with its victory over WSU on Friday night.
From two bids to three and possibly four — the week could not have unfolded in better fashion for a conference that underwhelmed throughout the regular season.
The bid total also means more cash for Washington State and Oregon State, the two schools not entering other leagues this summer.
As the sole members of the Pac-12 starting July 1, with hopes to eventually rebuild the conference, the Cougars and Beavers will be entitled to all NCAA Tournament revenue generated by outbound schools.
Every game played is worth approximately $2 million over time to the participating teams’ conferences. Colorado’s (likely) ascent into March Madness came at the Cougars’ expense on the court but will benefit their coffers.
And if Oregon makes the NCAAs, as well, the ‘Pac-2’ schools would collect another $2 million.
Each victory by the Buffaloes and Ducks would add $2 million to the conference’s future revenue total for WSU and OSU to share. (The money earned this month will be paid out over six years starting next spring.)
It seems a second twist materialized in Las Vegas this week: The Cougars won by losing.
With the Pac-12 assured at least three bids on Selection Sunday, what else should we expect when the tournament field is revealed at 3 p.m. on CBS?
Pac-12 seeds
Arizona’s slim chance to earn the No. 1 seed in the West seemingly vanished altogether when the Wildcats lost to Oregon on Friday night as double-digit favorites.
But a stout resume constructed in November and December will prevent the Wildcats from falling below the No. 2 line. They are headed to Salt Lake City for the opening weekend and, with two victories, would advance to the Sweet 16 in Los Angeles.
Washington State seems destined for a No. 6 or 7 seed, and the difference is significant: As a No. 7, the Cougars would be paired with the No. 2 in the second round, a more challenging matchup than facing the No. 3 seed. (That No. 2 seed would not be Arizona; the Pac-12 teams will be placed in different regions, per selection procedures.)
There are several issues at play for Colorado, with participation atop the list. Our hunch is CU not only makes the at-large field but avoids the First Four thanks to a double-shot of propellant: The victory over WSU on Friday night; and an eight-game winning streak.
If Oregon wins the Pac-12 tournament, a double-digit seed will follow.
The No. 1 seeds
If Arizona is on the outside looking in, which teams are on the inside?
Houston, Purdue and Connecticut are locks for the top line, with North Carolina favored for the final No. 1 seed after losses this weekend by contenders Tennessee and Arizona.
Houston, which won the Big 12 regular season title, was the best bet to receive the No. 1 overall seed until the Cougars lost badly (to Iowa State) in the tournament championship.
Now, Connecticut might claim the distinction, which is meaningless once the competition begins.
The western landscape
The Pacific and Mountain Time Zones will have modest representation in the 68-team field, with the Mountain West accounting for an outsized percentage of the participants.
The MW should collect at least five bids on Sunday: San Diego State, Utah State, Boise State, Nevada and Colorado State are on solid ground, while New Mexico occupies a spot on the bubble.
Look for at least three teams from the Pac-12, as mentioned previously, and two from the WCC: Saint Mary’s and Gonzaga. Both teams project as mid-level seeds.
Also, don’t forget Brigham Young, which navigated the Big 12 schedule impressively and should receive a No. 5 or 6 seed.
The Big West, Big Sky and Western Athletic Conference will send one team each.
One thing you won’t find in the NCAA Tournament: The four California schools that call the Pac-12 home (for a few more months).
UCLA, USC, Cal and Stanford were eliminated from the at-large pool weeks ago, then bounced from the Pac-12 tournament.
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