Sentiments apart, using logical deduction I think it will be Atiku. Tinubu will come second while Obi will be third.
Tinubu would have been the favourite but three factors are against him.
1. The current state of the economy and security which has been made worse by the APC government. People don’t want to hear anything about APC again.
2. The Muslim-Muslim Ticket:
3. Old age; after what Nigerians experienced with Buhari, majority will not like to vote for another old person again.
As it stands, Atiku has the best chance of winning. We can all remember how he came close in the previous election with a heavyweight like Buhari.
Let me have your thoughts and contributions on who you think will win
With the electoral act in place and with the BVAs , the election will be dicey because the act of rigging elections in Nigeria won’t happen again. Which means power now belongs to the people and no longer Political elites. Therefore no one will say the ruling party will rig it’s way.
There is crisis in PDP and little Internal wrangling in APC because of same faith ticket. With the way things are now going between Wike and Atiku, some northern politicians in both APC and PDP are now sympathetic to Atiku thinking that Wike is fighting their brother, that’s why we are seeing many defections hitting most northern APC controlled states into PDP.
Tinubu has an upper hand in Southwest which also gives block vote because most PDP politicians in Southwest are in Wike side, which means there is uncertainty that they will campaign for Atiku. Let’s not also forget that some PDP Chieftains in APC controlled states in the north are with Wike too.
Peter Obi will try in SE, SS,SW buh I don’t see him winning most northern states, though anything can happen.
So this coming election will be a tough one without a winner in sight
Who will win the 2023 election has become a big question no one can beat his/her chest to answer. Ask all the aspirants the same question, each of them will all say he is going to emerge the winner even when it is obvious we cannot have more than one winner. But as it stands now, the issues raised by the poster are working against Tinubu, if not, one would have given it to him but he still stands the chance because of the crises PDP is facing. Tinubu wouldn’t have got any chance if not for the turbulence in PDP which may greatly cost the party 2023 presidential ticket, because right now Atiku will lose the south who massively voted for him in the past. As for Obi, i think anything can happen. So, personally, i am given the three of them equal chances but events before the election will openly determine the winner as anything can still happen between now and February 2023.